By Blerim Abedini, the Center for Security Studies and Development, Macedonia(CSSD)
Key factors for changes in the World. Recommendations of the EU and the US to transition countries. Balkan confrontations in the vacuum of transition.
The USA continues to participate in Balkans peninsula developments. Historically USA has been key factor during Second World War, by helping European states that were under aggression and for their fight against occupation.
USA and EU have different models of administrations. One of them is administration in the scope of the Union and second with state’s administration in whole federation.
The USA has good geostrategic position and high technology to influence political events and research markets around the globe. We know that USA government has better and stable decisions than EU representatives. The success of good governing is resulted by historical approach to issues and also by efficient actions of government over strategy making, probably over past two centuries.
In other side the political system of EU is facing difficulties due to regional war conflicts and inherited political systems of socialist states which were part of ex-Soviet Union. The EU has implementation’s barriers due to accommodation of recent states administration in correlation with EU suggested and recommending policy.
War and conflict crises around globe will affect the US administration to take measures, for calming fire on recent geographic region. States with unstable economies and fragile governments will require intervention from US government. In addition, the market competition factor will attract other states to the scene as: China, India, Australia, Canada, and Russia. Behind foreign investment they will try to participate in regional events, probably those politically motivated. Some challenges which investors will face could be climate change, poverty, unemployment, corruption, criminal groups, security and inadequate public infrastructure for transport of goods and implementation of projects.
In time of Cold War most of Western Balkans had open market with, socialist states, states with market economy and Third World states. In a large part the Balkans after years of nineties, we see peninsula consisted by the states with economic and social transition.
The regional war in the Balkans of nineties has annihilated market inputs. Before the nineties, the market of Balkans was strongly associated by the inputs (raw materials) of neighboring states. So the crises after nineties will make the Balkan market ‘nonfunctional’ where the absence of needed products will affect big companies. This economic decline will affect the economies in those countries especially that have been participators of regional conflicts.
Balkans states will import products from foreign international markets as, removing parts for cars, transport vehicles, heavy machines and agricultural machines, devices and parts for kitchen, household furnishings, etc. Greece as trading state, will continue its orientation for importing and distributing products for auto parts, heavy track and other pieces brought by developed states as US, EU, Japan, South Korea, etc.
Automotive car industry in old Yugoslavia(Photo: Google images)
EU (within UK and Suisse) export in the Balkans many products as cars, kitchen devices, furnishing for house, devices for gardening, tools for handy craft, agricultural machines, heavy trucks, machines for manufactures, materials for building, removing parts for industry. In other side Europe with its policy operates in societies to reinforce reforms against barriers in transitional countries. More responsibility taken in the political approach of EU, reflect slowly process for integration of candidate states to join EU family.
EU policy obtains reforms in justice, administration, mediums, agricultural development, human rights, etc. If we look closer to recent issues and developments, some of details may tell and explain the real situation. Is understandable that beyond all events citizens are looking for better times.
The USA as highly integrated social federation currently will be only source for raising progress and prosperity. Furthermore the USA has capacity and strategic approach to fight barriers those prevent integration of democracy around World. So is acceptable that elections results in the USA in November will change worldwide situation as refresh and accelerator for unfinished geostrategic projects.
Another factor- the effect of synergy, which currently obtains three economic zones in whole World is very important for making balance for additional unstable events. Also in other side people’s effort for integration and wellness, through protests are filling the gaps, featured to democratic countries in transitional economies.
Currently some recent issues as consequences coming from some political decisions, social differences, lack climate initiatives, poverty and migration as its solution, also and common threats as corruption, criminality, illegal trade have some kind of hierarchy where applying of management need more than ever.
Seems world has same attitudes from east to west. Balkans and their people are hoping for integration as only path for future and wellness of their children. Balkans has faced difficulty after Second World War due to social and economic factors.
The peninsula in its geography has contained socialist countries, socialist independent countries, independent isolated country, trade oriented country and third world country as mixture in a small geographic region. I remember the story where author has named restaurant composition in a city placed in the USA as ‘melting pots’. Writer has resembled people with various national backgrounds in that restaurant as mixture in table receipt. I have same conclusion for Balkans in a relative sense.
The rest part of Balkans stills has dual integration policy. Bipolarity in region has prolonged process of integration in the EU. The economies are weakening in terms of markets, products, employees and employers. These are the consequences of bipolarity made in law implementing, decision making and inefficiency of policymakers.
Recent events in Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia, Albania, Turkey and Greece are signs of destabilization.
Many countries have unsustainable economy. Human rights as crucial in above countries are under criticism by international organization. People are afraid to express and deny pressure and injustice from leaderships.
We see some movements in Macedonia to protest for human rights, having support from internal factors and international organizations and institutions. As common of these protests is the voice against state leaders for disregarding the constitution.
In the end of all, people need to forget something from their history as it was nationalism, which is the engine of radicalization and factor of periodical crises.