1. As long as a war breaks out, then there is a possibility that neighboring states will be involved in it, either directly or indirectly, influenced by the effect of propaganda, military attack as well as hybrid methods. In the case of Ukraine, from an early phase, Russia has taken ‘care’ of the situation, through its special units, about cases for escalation of the conflict in the west-east areas. 

Also, Russia continues to activate other non-state actors in inciting hatred between ethnic and religious groups. The Russian Foreign Ministry has played a central role in this crisis campaign, justifying its attack on Ukraine with the preliminary ‘plan’ of US secret laboratories. Such methods were once used by the USSR in Ukraine in 1932-33, causing disaster to Ukraine with expansive dimensions, otherwise known as the “Red Famine”. The same is being repeated nowadays in Kyiv, as well as occupied or under intention for other regions of Ukrainian territory. Russia in Ukraine has made its intentions clear while some are out of bounds. Any other participation of NATO and EU members in support of Ukraine, from the official Kremlin, is considered hostile and could initiate revenge by the Russians. 

2. The BALKANS: For now, there is only one risk- of a low level of destabilization of the Western Balkans by Russia, while it could be relative if the war is prolonged in time. The EU and NATO, despite the epilogue of the Russo-Ukrainian war, will soon have to accept new members from the Balkans, which could serve as a wall against Russia, as today and in the future. The main node of any possible destabilization in the wider region remains the current policy of Belgrade, as well as that of Milorad Dodik and furthermore Northern Kosovo. 

Washington, despite Serbia’s dual stance on the new war in the heart of Europe, continues to support the policy of the Serbian government and its president. With the war in Ukraine and the threats with the use of chemical weapons, Russia tries to impose new security rules. (I)

Translated and edited from Albanian by Blerim Abedini