Selim Ibraimi- “We are witnessing a situation where Russia claims to be negotiating in a situation where it should actually be negotiating,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said during a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council. While discussing Russia’s role, senior officials from France, Britain, the US, and Germany met this week. Representatives from Ukraine also joined. They aimed to end the war based on the last 28-point plan, reduced to 18 points.
There have been many moves and fluctuations in US-EU relations. Additionally, there are new plans for Ukraine. One thing is obvious: transatlantic relations are facing a challenging phase. The new American policy towards the Europeans is concerning. DOS Secretary Marco Rubio’s approach to the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, highlights this issue. He has refused to meet the EU diplomat both in Washington and in Europe. It seems like nothing, but in transatlantic relations, it is, and everyone sees this.
Such behavior is unacceptable and, of course, plays into Russia’s policy of dividing european states in relation to the US. This is not the only case. Recently, senior EU officials have expressed concern about a relationship with the US administration. They worry it could harm the EU, Ukraine, and open issues in the Balkans. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was shocked by the US peace plan. The authoritative american newspaper, The New York Times (NYT), reported that Merz learned about the plan from the media. According to the NYT, he had not received any information from Washington.
“For an ally of such a level, this felt like a slap in the face to Germany,” the NYT reported. According to the newspaper’s sources, the German chancellor’s team tried several times to contact President Donald Trump. They wanted to find out what the document contained. Faced with an untenable situation, senior diplomats from the most powerful European states headed to Geneva. Their goal was to save not only Ukraine but also themselves. Last week, a report indicated that some progress occurred in the Geneva talks. The aim was a better position for Ukraine in the final plans with Russia. However, the main concern is that the US and the EU, in general, are not working together. There are concerns that such behaviour could lead to a wider shift. This results in more influence in Europe by states like Russia or China.
The US and European states reveal differences on both sides of the Atlantic. This division is especially evident after the unexpected American plan was adapted to 18 points. These differences will continue until the end of Trump’s mandate, with unpredictable consequences. Left divided and without proper support from the US, some European governments are considering some tougher policies towards Moscow. The Politico Europe newspaper reported that European states are considering unprecedented measures against Russia.
“After a series of russian provocations, including drone strikes, GPS jamming, and acts of sabotage, the EU is discussing possible countermeasures, such as cyberattacks on key russian infrastructure, unexpected NATO exercises near Russia’s borders, and intelligence operations targeting russian citizens.” Historically, the US and the EU have sometimes come together in transatlantic relations. However, since 2016, the transatlantic rift has clearly widened. European states are developing new policies toward Russia. They are also working for a stronger defence independent of the US. These initiatives should not be underestimated. The law adopted by MEPs on Tuesday aims to strengthen the EU’s defence industry. It promotes joint european defence procurement. It aims to increase defence production. At the same time, it aims to increase support for Ukraine in these difficult times.
MEPs have agreed to create the first European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP). The scheme aims to strengthen the european defence technological and industrial base and increase european defence capabilities. Under the plan, out of the 1.5 billion euro budget of the EDIP, 300 million euros will go to the Ukraine Support Instrument. MEPs also agreed to create a Fund for Accelerating Defence Supply Chain Transformation (FAST). From the last meeting, with the new plan, member states are allowed to use the Recovery and Resilience Instrument (RRF). Recent actions show that MEPs are doing a lot, and this is related to the unfair american policy towards Europe. In this regard, Denmark, according to European newspaper reports, has created a unit called “Night Watch” to monitor the actions of US president Donald Trump due to fears about Greenland. Meanwhile, in the Western Balkans during the second term of US president Donald Trump, there was some hope and joy. This feeling was especially from Serbia and North Macedonia, regarding their national problems and energy security.
A year later, the situation is completely different. Serbia and North Macedonia have nothing more to expect from president Trump’s administration. Like the rest of the EU states, the Balkan states are in constant fear of Trump administration’s unexpected actions. They face the same dilemmas and concerns about what Washington’s actions will bring tomorrow. The end of the peace plan in Ukraine will reveal the outcomes of other talks. It will also clarify how open issues in the Balkans will be resolved. Never forget the consequences of uncoordinated American actions. Understand the benefits when developed democracies support each other. They must also take appropriate actions in world affairs. There are disagreements and some good days between the US and the EU. Meanwhile, Central European states such as Hungary and Slovakia are moving away from EU policies. Recently, Hungary and Serbia have agreed to close ties in energy security and transport. Orban has even proposed an alliance with Serbia. Also in this context, Milorad Dodik, a Bosnian Serb ultranationalist, has traveled to Budapest for talks with Orban. Considering all the factors, such moves will lead to greater division within the EU and the Balkan states. This division will forever end the dream of some Balkan states to join the EU. It will also end Washington’s influence in Europe and the Balkans. In such a scenario, North Macedonia and Srpska Republika may join the Central Alliance. There are unprecedented relations between US and EU officials to some extent. However, the US is seen as an unstable partner. US senators have expressed concerns about this. The current relations between the EU, the US, and other new democracies are at their lowest status. This situation will have medium and long-term consequences. The current relations have contributed to the rise of new political factions, new ideologies, and new alliances. In particular, the Central Alliance will consist of several states of the former soviet sphere. It might also include the states of the former Yugoslavia. This alliance should be watched and followed in the coming months. Focus on the form and concrete actions by Hungary and Serbia. In the long term, divisions and misunderstandings often give rise to new ideas. They might also prompt cooperation. Washington, Brussels, and other EU capitals, including the Balkan states, should recognize their potential. However, we have to see in the coming years how things will develop. And how the final form and structure of the new alliances will be, together with the new order.
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