Selim Ibraimi- After a long conflict, the key question has often been whether peace can be achieved quickly. It also asks if peace can come without sacrifice. This has been a central issue over the past two centuries. Or how long can a status quo last? Who will be the winner and the loser? These questions lead us to a situation where front lines or open issues stay in a “deep geopolitical freeze.” This situation affects states such as Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Kosovo, etc. They face the consequences of a harsh order on the rise. Post-war situations always impose new conditions. Here, even the most powerful European states become vulnerable. The end of the war on the Eastern Front may mark the beginning of peace. This peace is temporary.
However, let us bring some concrete examples from recent events. Antonio Costa, President of the Council of Europe, had a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to update you on the latest developments. “On the EU side, we are firmly committed to continuing our comprehensive support for Ukraine,” he explained in a post on X. “In the coming days, my focus will be on preparations for the next European Council, when the important decision on securing Ukraine’s funding for 2026-27 will have to be made,” Costa wrote on X. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also reported on X on the dynamics of the peace talks.
“Ukrainian representatives will continue their discussions with the US, with President Trump’s team. Our task is to obtain full information about what was said in Moscow, and what other pretexts Putin has invented to drag out the war and put pressure on Ukraine. Ukraine is prepared for any possible development and of course we will work as constructively as possible with all partners to ensure that peace is achieved.” “Ultimately, let it be a dignified peace. Only a dignified peace provides true security, and we fully understand that this requires, and will continue to require, the support of our partners,” Zelenskyy underlined in X. In the same vein, Finnish President Aleksander Stubb said: “Finns should prepare for unfair peace conditions in the war in Ukraine. The reality is that peace can be good, bad or some compromise.”
European states have been speaking with one voice for four years about supporting Ukraine and peace talks. However, Italy has made an ambiguous move, according to the media. It has been unofficially announced that Rome is officially leaving the “Purl” program, through which NATO countries buy American weapons for Kiev’s needs. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said that negotiations on a possible peace agreement are underway and Rome prefers to focus on diplomacy. How quickly the European front is being tried to collapse for a Ukrainian victory over Russia, is also shown by the latest action of Belgium. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has declared that Russia will not be defeated. “The frozen financial assets will have to be returned to the Kremlin.” In a statement to the newspaper “La Libre,” he said that talking about the breaking of Russia is “a fairy tale and a complete illusion.” According to him, no one seriously in the West believes in a scenario where Moscow will hand over its assets. “The confiscation of Russian assets is likely to provoke harsh retaliation from Moscow,” he said.
According to the “Financial Times,” the latest reactions became harsher, as several European countries, and senior officials in Brussels, have tried to take action to use 210 billion euros of frozen Russian state assets and turn them into a long-term war loan for Ukraine. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said about the Ukrainian missile implant that was promoted in Denmark: “This undertaking confirms the absolutely hostile and militaristic course of Copenhagen, which, together with some other states more aggressive towards Russia, is sabotaging efforts to achieve a political and diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis. All this carries the risk of further escalation.” US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said that for almost four years of war in Ukraine there was no real dialogue between the parties until President Trump intervened as a peacemaker. “Peace is a process, but the killings must stop.” Russian Ambassador to the UK Andrei Kelin said that Russia supports a diplomatic solution, but we do not want a puppet state created by Western governments on our border, hostile to us, where the Russian language is discriminated against and the Russian Orthodox Church is excluded. According to him, European countries are not working for peace.
“Great Britain, France, and Germany have supported the continuation of the fighting. The defense industry continues to function. This is beneficial to their economies, so they do not need to explain that their political mistake put their economy in a bad state.” As Trump’s team left Moscow with no sign that the war could end soon, the suspicions of the most powerful European governments have grown.
Despite the meetings, President Donald Trump declared that Ukraine had no cards. And according to him, that was the moment (February 2025) to make a deal. “They didn’t, and it was a mistake. They have a lot of work against them now,” Trump said Thursday. President Trump went on to explain that Russian President Vladimir Putin had met two days earlier with envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. “Putin wants to end the war. Envoys Kushner and Witkoff believe that he would prefer to return to a normal life, trading with the United States, rather than losing thousands of soldiers every week. “Their strong impression was that he wants a deal,” Trump said.
While the US is optimistic about a deal, Ukraine, France, Germany, Great Britain, Finland, and several European governments have reservations. They are concerned about the American plan and the way the meetings with the Russian delegation are being held. Therefore, they do not have much faith in an agreement that would end the war and satisfy both sides. Russia is determined that Donbas and other occupied parts, along with Crimea, remain under Russia and be internationally recognized. According to unofficial reports, the US might recognize the areas occupied by Russia in 2026. This is seen as a way to pressure Ukraine and the Europeans.
On the diplomatic front, the parties remain committed to peace. Neither side is ready for peace. Nor are they ready for permanent war. The situation remains frozen for an indefinite period. The fate of Ukraine reflects indirectly on the international balance of power. This impact would be reflected more widely, starting with the Balkans. Last week, American congressmen demanded more engagement from the administration of President Donald Trump. They focused on Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, and Kosovo. Other Balkan countries were also included.
Looking at American movements in Europe, it will be difficult to do much for Europeans. The recent talks in Moscow show that assisting Balkan countries will also be challenging. The “US National Security Strategy” was published in November 2025 by the White House. It shows that Washington will leave many issues in the hands of Europeans. The US will have light engagement in Europe and the Balkans. According to the document, Washington’s policy for Europe focuses on several issues. The first is restoring conditions of stability within Europe. Another focus is strategic stability with Russia. The document further states that Europe must take primary responsibility for its own defense. A section focuses on opening European markets to American goods and services. It ensures fair treatment for American workers and businesses. One paragraph highlights that the US will strive to build healthy nations in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe. This goal will be pursued through trade ties, arms sales, political cooperation, and cultural and educational exchanges.
There is no major dilemma. The frozen situation in some parts of the world will stay for such a long time. This is despite this document and considering the recent actions not only of the US. The situation will remain neither in a position of progress nor of regression. A frozen situation has already been established in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and North Macedonia. The future is unclear with the displacement of capacities for new blocks on the rise. In this regard, Milorad Dodik has left the Serbian presidency. Despite this, he continues to remain the strongest among Serbs. Recent Bosnian media reports indicate that there is support from abroad. This support is for the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt (OHR), to resign from his post.
The problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and North Macedonia reflect the instability in Eastern Europe. They also indicate the pressure from changes in transatlantic relations. Recent events provide a solid basis for predictions about the next decade in Europe. This includes regions from the Baltics to the Balkans. The developments on the battlefield in Ukraine, as well as in diplomatic meetings, reveal a primary concern. This concern is the strategic vacuum in the frozen state of the previously conflict-ridden areas. In the current situation, European states are unlikely to do much against Russia. The US is focused on the Pacific, and China is supporting Russia. Wars and open issues, including in the Balkans, are unlikely to end with long-term agreements.
It will probably take another decade to change the balance of power for better peace and security. Recent developments in Ukraine, the EU, and the Balkans are significant. The reconstruction of the new international order suggests a move towards a multipolar world. These remind me of the German philosopher Immanuel Kant (1724-1804). His famous and influential essay on the theory of international relations “On Perpetual Peace” states that “perpetual peace does not arise from love”. It arises from mechanisms that force even the most savage state to behave as if it wanted peace. “No peace treaty should be the basis for future war. No state can be acquired from another state by inheritance, exchange, purchase, or a gift, because states are not property”. Kant further underlines that “humanity can achieve lasting peace only through a fundamental transformation of international relations based on moral principles”. But, as things currently stand, there is not much to be said about morality in international politics. However, states must act in accordance with international law at least to achieve a temporary peace. Amid the poetic sounds of the Russian winter in the Donbas, the fate of the EU states, the Balkans, etc., it is becoming clear that the case of Ukraine will not go entirely in favor of Kiev. The emergence of frozen lines may favor Russia. It can also support its backers in the Balkans and its Balkan proxy supporters. Regardless of how things play out, the coming decades will challenge everyone. This may be the first stage of the emergence of the “geopolitics of frozen lines”.
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