Selim Ibraimi- The EU Council presidency will be led by Cyprus in 2026. It looks set to favor a different approach to the Balkans. There are new members close to joining. Others are staying away. Meanwhile, Bulgaria on Thursday became the 21st country to adopt the euro after two decades.
“I warmly welcome Bulgaria,” said Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank. According to the AFP news agency, she called the euro a “powerful symbol” of “shared values and collective strength.”
Meanwhile, talks to end the war in Ukraine are continuing. High-level talks will take place in the coming days. These talks will involve Ukrainian, EU, and US officials. They aim to finalize plans for a possible peace and the deployment of military troops in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared on X. He announced that a meeting of national security advisers would be held in Ukraine. “This is the first such meeting in Ukraine, and it is focused on peace. European representatives will participate, and we expect the American team to join online. Fifteen countries have confirmed their participation, along with representatives of European institutions and NATO.”
“Then, on January 5, there will be a meeting of the military, of the chiefs of general staff. The main issue is security guarantees for Ukraine. Politically, almost everything is ready, and it is important to work out in every detail how the guarantees will work in the air, on land, and at sea, if we manage to end the war. And that is the main goal for all normal people.” “We are preparing now to ensure that the meeting is productive, that support is increased, and that there is greater political confidence in both the security guarantees and the peace agreement. “I thank all those who help us,” Zelensky said.
From the Russian accusations about Moscow’s claims that Ukraine attacked Putin’s residence, which Ukraine has denied, along with the latest CIA report, the Russian Defense Ministry continued with other reports. Russian officials handed over to the Americans data from a drone, which, according to the Russians, is the one that allegedly flew on December 29 to attack Putin’s residence. The Russian Defense Ministry announced that they found a “file with the flight mission” on one of the UAVs, which was going to attack Putin’s residence in Valdai.
While the accusations have not stopped, diplomacy continues to strive for a ceasefire and new post-war conditions in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Europe must accelerate the strengthening of its defense. Macron said, “In just a few days in Paris, European states and allies will agree on concrete steps. These steps will protect Ukraine and ensure a just peace on the continent.” Surprisingly, the Central European countries gained much from the EU after communism fell. Now, they have turned against the EU and Ukraine itself. Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic were among the biggest winners of European funds after 1990. Now, they have turned against the EU and Ukraine.
Today’s economic development is not accidental in these countries. However, over the past three years and especially in 2025, all three countries have opposed EU policies. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Hungary is not leaving the West. “We are standing to change it. We want an alliance guided by common sense. Brussels should serve the nations, not act as a puppet,” Orban said in X. Other critics highlight that the three representatives of the Central European states are not alone. Meanwhile, others from the Balkans that have also benefited from the EU are acting differently. They have moved closer to authoritarian policies. This shift supports the post-war atmosphere expected after any agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
Joining the EU has been a magic ticket to economic progress. It also facilitated financial progress for the former communist satellite states. The same has been true for those from the Balkans. Even one of the weakest performers, like Bulgaria, is now heading towards vertical growth, analysts say. A simple comparison with Serbia, a non-EU country, shows a lot. According to them, this will also happen with Ukraine after the war in terms of development, given Ukraine’s natural resources. A developed Ukraine next to a declining Russia is a great horror.
Central European states have secured opportunities and a rightful place in Eastern Europe within the EU. In contrast, those from the Balkans are almost living in an illusion. They have almost copied the old Serbian policies. Albania and Montenegro are close to membership, leaving North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo far behind. Instead of dealing with the implementation of reforms, disputes and interstate dilemmas have increased. In a big guess is Serbia. According to the AFP agency, the US has granted a suspension of sanctions to the Serbian oil company (NIS). The suspension is valid until the end of January 2026. “NIS has received a license from the US OFAC that allows it to continue operations until January 23. This means the Pančevo refinery can resume operations. It will take 36 days,” said Serbian Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic. It is unclear when representatives of Serbia will understand the challenges of governing. Likewise, it is uncertain when North Macedonia will perceive these challenges. Moreover, when Milorad Dodik’s political heirs in Bosnia and Herzegovina will grasp these challenges is also unclear. Their personal egos add complexity to this understanding.
The EU desires to bring Balkan states into the union. They have made significant efforts in this regard. Careful optimization should be applied if the states competing aim to exclude Montenegro and Albania. Their ultimate goal should be the EU. Apart from Russian influence, there are no other external obstacles. The ups and downs come from the internal motives of governments. They sometimes say we are close and working. In reality, they are very far away.
Phased membership should motivate states struggling to move towards reforms. This should be the goal for the next decade to become part of the EU. The year 2026 will establish some rules and what the way forward will be like. On the one hand, American diplomacy in the Balkans is now transactional. It has moved away from the foreign policy of previous administrations. Current American policy promotes quick agreements. For instance, former separatist leader of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, was removed from the American blacklist. This action signaled a particular American pragmatism. Also, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) of 2026 reaffirmed American support. Balkan states are encouraged to join Euro-Atlantic organizations. Kosovo was not left aside.
From all the developments and beyond, it is seen that some countries are preparing for peace and some for war. The external and internal international situation is reminiscent of Leo Tolstoy’s novel “War and Peace” 1869. In the novel, historical forces and resistance prevail over the personal ambitions of leaders. The Balkans are now facing an important phase in the context of the Ukrainian case. To reform as a whole or to embrace stagnation with the possibility of going backwards.
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