Selim Ibraimi- Russia is becoming more operational and concrete in its sphere of interest. The latest analysis by U.S. intelligence indicates that Russia continues to pursue longstanding policies in the Balkans and across Europe.
“Most European countries consider Russia to be their biggest and most persistent adversary. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened European defensive postures. Its use of gray-zone tactics against European industry and civil society has also contributed. Additionally, its efforts to foment frozen conflicts have played a part.”
“NATO and EU member states are eager for the war in Ukraine to be resolved in a way that not only preserves Ukrainian sovereignty but also deters future Russian aggression in Europe. Russia’s war in Ukraine has revived fears of ethnic conflict and reinforced political fault lines in the Western Balkans between Russia and the West. Russia is fueling instability, favoring Serbia over Kosovo’s statehood, and supporting the secession of the Serbian entity of Republika Srpska.
Russia also uses state-sponsored non-governmental entities to conduct campaigns to undermine NATO and the EU, emphasizing Serbian victimization and promoting ties to Russia, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia, which have large ethnic Serb populations,” the 2026 annual threat assessment of the US Intelligence Community (IC) explains.
Over the past two years, reports on Europe and the Balkans have indicated a decline in Russian influence. They indicate an increase in Chinese influence. However, Russia has apparently changed its approach. It is now more concrete and operational. Russia focuses its activities on specific areas of civil society. Additionally, it organizes campaigns against the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. According to recent reports, Russia is using Serbia as a hub to operate in the Balkans and in EU countries.
US assessments over the past few years have been compared. They show that the US intelligence community is understanding Russia much better. Their understanding of the Balkans has also improved significantly.
The last two reports from the US intelligence community, for 2024 and 2025, emphasized a potential increase in interethnic tensions. Nationalist politicians will significantly contribute to these tensions. Their sole aim is to destabilize the region. The US and EU, alongside Ukraine, should devote time to the Balkans.
But this did not happen, except for the Serbian attack on Banjska, Kosovo, in 2023.
The 2026 report highlights Milorad Dodik and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić as actors inciting tensions.
The 2026 assessment of Moscow’s exploitation of the situation in the Balkans is unchanged from previous analyses. It continues the old line of presenting threats from Russia. These threats support old hostilities in the Balkans.
As mentioned above, the latest analysis of the US services for this year is more detailed. It publicly names non-governmental entities. It also becomes more precise about Russia’s activities.
The current EU members have internal disagreements. Meanwhile, the Balkan states are pursuing dual policies regarding membership. As a result, all circumstances are in Moscow’s favor. Bosnia-Herzegovina is the most sensitive node, as Serbian interests coincide with Russian ones to prevent federation and integration. Kosovo, which since 1999 has relied entirely on NATO peacekeeping forces, also remains a battleground for Serbia.
Last week, Serbian air forces were spotted in the Presevo Valley. This area is near the border with Kosovo. This occurred in addition to the incidents in northern Kosovo. The government in Pristina called these actions new provocations by Serbia. NATO has so far assessed the situation as stable.
From the latest assessments, it can be seen that the American analytical framework is focused on Russian-Chinese influence.
As before, Russia is exploiting the ethnic-religious identity of the peoples of the Balkan region. It uses its influence on local media and non-governmental organizations. Russia is continuing its old policies. Russian actions should not be underestimated by the reformist governments of the Balkans.
Despite Moscow’s four-year war in Ukraine, with the recent US-Iran war, Russia is gaining more power until the next confrontation. Russia, in the coming years, will follow different tactics. Russia will be more secretive in its operations. Moscow has no intention of conquering the Balkans. Instead, it aims to prevent the process of reforms and integration. And it has done this at a low cost for years and will continue to do so in the future.
Russia is operating in a chronic area of unresolved problems in the Balkans. When we add current world issues, it seems that Russia is gaining momentum. However, Balkan societies and governments must be resilient and proactive against foreign interference and much more.
US lawmakers have urged the US government to maintain its military presence in the Balkans and Europe. This is due to Russian threats to European states. The operational activity in the Balkans is highlighted in the latest assessment of the US Intelligence Community (IC).
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