Selim Ibraimi- For more than three decades, since the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989), the idea was that a unipolar world would never end. In the last two decades, it has become clear that there is another adversary that is becoming the equal of the US. It is China, which aims to surpass the United States. The case of Ukraine and the war in the Persian Gulf confirmed this idea.
US President Donald Trump said some time ago that it would take two billion dollars a day to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Chinese response was not long in coming. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: “The strait was open before the war. The roots of the problem lie in your illegal actions against Iran; you have created a global crisis out of thin air.” Two decades ago, it was unthinkable to think that China would respond in this way or that Canada or the US would impose tariffs on each other, even on EU countries.
This is another argument that the changing world order, or otherwise called “transactional realism,” is not only between dominant states, but also includes the changing relations between the West and the political realities in certain regions of the globe. The division between Western states on the one hand and the rising powers is not just a conceptual or ideological issue; it is a technological, military, artificial intelligence, and scientific issue, which, according to all evidence and indicators, the East, with China at the forefront as the major power and the middle powers, will surpass the Western countries, which are already in crisis.
They have internal concerns; they have become fragmented societies, with issues of inequality and racial differences, lack of production, etc. The race for allies has also brought a new era of adversaries, which is putting new pressure on Western societies that have become accustomed to depending on the US since 1945, especially Europe.
That golden age for Europe, regardless of who is in power in Washington, is thought to be over. The US is deeply in debt and unable to take responsibility for world affairs. While the US faces China as a major world power, it is unthinkable to continue to bear the financial burden of European or Balkan states.
In practical terms, these are some manifestations of a new reality in world politics that is also visible in the Balkans. Previously, we have written about these reports about US relations with the EU, China, Ukraine, Russia, etc. In the last part of this article, we will focus on some obvious changes with advantages and disadvantages for some countries in the Balkans, considering the multipolar world with a changing world order. Specifically, it is about the situation that is already being reflected by the shift of American policy towards Serbia with an important role, in which Washington is increasing cooperation with Belgrade in defense, economy, energy security, etc., and with a tendency to reduce cooperation with Pristina, without questioning its recognition and with a presence of American troops in Kosovo.
The current American approach may change if the government in Kosovo and its representatives, including the opposition, make rapid changes in policies. In this way, Serbia can be counterbalanced, and American policy can be gradually rebalanced without further favoring Serbia in strategic terms. As we know, Serbia has a multipolar role and will try to maintain its current status with the support of some EU countries and the US.
North Macedonia does not have this role. It has made slow progress on the path to the EU and the rule of law, with a high probability of promoting political recidivism and heated interethnic outbursts. Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to function as a divided country. After more than three decades of the 1995 Dayton Agreement, lobbyists hired by Republika Srpska (RS) are lobbying US senators to one day secede from the federation.
These are just a few examples of how the international order has, in reality, affected the Balkans with risks and advantages for some states.
It should be noted in the end that historically there have been changes in world affairs and order. Developments at that time were traditionally documented, compared to today’s opportunities where we have rapid structural changes that are felt by both powerful and weak states. The race to be and remain first, especially in energy, resources, artificial intelligence programs, and space exploration, will also show the shape of the new international order.
Until then, we will see more “transactional realism” and much less idealization and constructive politics in international institutions. As we move through this phase, the fragile states in the Balkans and their governments should be careful, because no one cares anymore about norms and morality in international politics.
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