Selim Ibraimi- Historically, a concern for states has been how to respond in certain situations where supplies of food and weaponry are interrupted or obstructed for various reasons. In the Middle Ages, maritime transport and other supply lines provided states and armies with the essential materials required for their survival. In the industrial era, the nature of transport shifted, as trains, along with other modes of transport, assumed the primary role.
More recently, news reports have indicated that Great Britain and other European nations, alongside the United States, are urging their citizens and military forces to build up food reserves and ensure they can operate independently for weeks or months. Populations on both sides of the Atlantic have begun making preparations for an uncertain future. While there is no immediate concern that a nuclear war is on the verge of breaking out, the current announcements are part of precautionary measures and preparations against cyberattacks and other forms of aggression, threats faced by both fragile and stable democracies, whether from external or internal sources. The goal is to prepare for a future that could prove even more challenging than the Cold War era and the period that followed. It is in our interest to observe how the EU and the US are collaborating with the Western Balkan states, countries that have long aspired to join the Union and have received assistance from the EU and the US specifically to prepare for all types of cyberattacks.
The EU’s strategy shifts the focus squarely onto hybrid warfare and the security of the energy grid, treating civilian infrastructure as the modern-day front line. In response to an escalating campaign of covert operations, the EU has established rapid-response frameworks to prevent scenarios involving energy disruptions. The European Commission (EC) has recently introduced an Emergency Security Protocol, accompanied by a “centralized anti-hybrid manual.”
“This mechanism functions as ‘Europe’s own Article 4,’ enabling member states to bypass traditional bureaucratic delays and launch collective, coordinated counter-measures against ‘gray zone’ aggression.” Operationally, the EU Intelligence and Situation Centre (EU INTCEN) utilizes a specialized format to rapidly share intelligence with EU member states and candidate countries.
A growing concern observed this year involves Russian drone attacks on airports across European nations; in a worst-case scenario, this could lead to the collapse of Europe’s energy grid. To bolster these defenses, the EU relies on the implementation of both the NIS2 Directive on cybersecurity and the Directive on the Resilience of Critical Entities (CER). The latter concerns the plans and preparations of major European energy operators to safeguard their energy assets.
The other directive focuses on digital resilience, involving the implementation of cybersecurity protocols designed to secure smart grid operations before any damage can occur. European states, especially since 2022, have allocated sufficient budgets for programs that could one day serve the interests of national security.
Meanwhile, in the US much like in the EU and Great Britain, the federal government, in collaboration with other security entities, has engaged in efforts to bolster and strengthen the capacity of the energy grid and other critical infrastructure.
Despite these positive initiatives in Europe and the US, digital integration and artificial intelligence can also pose significant risks. It is worth noting for our readers that, in the US , the security of the electrical grid relies on a partnership between the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
The primary entity responsible for protecting physical energy infrastructure is the Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), which operates under the DOE. Concurrently, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) serves as the broader coordinator for critical infrastructure in the United States. Despite all preparations and programs, Western nations are not immune to threats that could disrupt life and cause major problems for the West and the world, especially since the West’s adversaries are also preparing for a worst-case scenario.
The countries of the Western Balkans rely on Western infrastructure; yet, ironically, due to a lower level of digitalization and modernization, they might be less directly affected by large-scale disruptions. This does not mean that the Western Balkan states—or other governments, would be immune to interruptions in the supply of food and energy resources, which could trigger a crisis, not only in these regions but elsewhere as well.
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