Selim Ibraimi- We are witnessing rapid changes. These are linked to the transformations that human society has undergone throughout various stages At the same time, we cannot avoid new technological challenges.
Over the last two years, ordinary citizens, universities, governments, and other sectors have faced the challenge of how to respond to the threats arising from this transformation toward a digital world. In the near future, it will become increasingly difficult to find answers to questions regarding how to ensure access to goods, markets, rare metals, and other strategic materials.
From this perspective, we can begin to consider what our future might look like over the next two or three decades and, most importantly, how states will act within such an environment. For humanity and governments, this will pose a challenge, as the issue is no longer merely physical; rather, it concerns a digital structure designed to endure for decades to come. Consequently, in the coming decades, we will witness a different world one characterized by transformed relationships among the states and organizations that currently play a key role in international politics. It could be argued that this is merely a repetition of past trajectories and that this pattern represents a continuation, albeit in different forms.
However, the situation is not static; in the era of artificial intelligence, technological access, and digital international politics, states will go to great lengths to deny others access to strategic resources or assets. While this may sound like a scenario from a science fiction film, in reality, we are moving precisely in that direction. Europe and the Balkans are at different stages of development. Although some Western Balkan states have committed to aligning with EU standards on artificial intelligence, the region’s digital network remains fragile.
During the eighth Western Balkans Digital Summit, organized by the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC) in Herceg Novi, Montenegro, on October 13–14, 2026, it became evident that the EU is keen to see the infrastructure in the Western Balkans transition to a digital format. However, everything now depends on the will of the governments.
Regardless of current conditions and the lack of further progress in the digital sphere, the passage of time and other technological developments will push the Western Balkan states toward integration into the world of the future, a world that, as we have noted in previous articles, will be digital, with all its attendant benefits and risks.
In particular, geopolitics will become so intertwined with technology that states possessing capabilities in the field of artificial intelligence may be able to restrict access to essential goods and materials for non-allied nations. In such a scenario and given its past the region could face a two-tiered division:
One path involves becoming part of the EU and assuming the associated responsibilities, while the other entails remaining on the periphery.
Nevertheless, the current situation offers a clearer forecast of how structural and other forces, both regionally and globally will take shape, and how they will impact the Western Balkans as part of the broader geopolitical macrosystem. Given that the Western Balkans has historically played a role in connectivity while also, at times, being entangled in global issues it is highly likely that the region will be influenced by three major powers over the next two decades, particularly when considering the two potential divisions mentioned above.
The US is set to play a role in defense technology, Russia will likely continue to exert influence through disinformation and the exploitation of ethno-religious tensions, and China is poised to become a key player in the economy, finance, and infrastructure sectors. Based on current dynamics, China has the potential to shape the digital economic landscape of the region, specifically within those states likely to remain outside the EU or any other alternative geoeconomic and technological bloc.
From this preliminary perspective, it is clear that access to new technologies and strategic materials will become part of a broader competitive struggle. Since 2022, the US has imposed various restrictions on semiconductor chips. Chinese authorities, for their part, have not lagged behind in this regard.
As of 2023, China has implemented restrictions on the export of galium. In this race which has yet to produce a winner, the Western Balkans, currently in the early stages of digitalization and the regulation of artificial intelligence, remains highly dependent on the US, China, Russia, and the EU. The European AI Act (2024), the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, and various other initiatives launched by the EU and the US indicate that the european market requires adaptation and the fulfillment of specific criteria to ensure strength and resilience. The risk of these states remaining on the periphery carries dangers, as seen in the case of the Bar–Boljare motorway in Montenegro, which was constructed using chinese loans.
Regarding digital projects, one example that can be highlighted is the surveillance system in Serbia (provided by Huawei), along with various other forms of chinese technological influence in the Western Balkans. Furthermore, given the recent installation of “Safe City” systems in several countries across the region, these nations could due to the sensitive nature of such technology become vulnerable to external interference in the future. Ultimately, those states capable of building such intelligent infrastructure will, in effect, be in a position to exert significant control over the technological future. Therefore, regional governments must decide now whether they will be participants, observers, or being dominated.
This article was written exclusively for Portalb.mk. Publication rights are held solely by Portalb.mk and the author, in accordance with an agreement between them.