Selim Ibraimi- 114 years after the First Balkan War (October 8, 1912), regional cooperation remains fragile, and the lessons of the Balkan Wars have yet to be fully embraced by regional governments. Since the dissolution of the Balkan League, a state of affairs has persisted that keeps the region’s peoples at odds with one another. It must be acknowledged that the situation is complex: irredentism, nationalism, and various forms of modern hybrid warfare, factors that hinder the region’s peoples from moving forward, run deep. Within the Balkan context, there are four cases worth examining: the first is Kosovo, which for nearly two years has cycled from one election to the next. However, at the last moment, on October 6 of this year, reason and the will to reach a fundamental agreement prevailed, thereby averting fresh parliamentary elections. This is viewed as an opportunity to look ahead and make timely improvements in both domestic and foreign policy. Until now, Kosovo has faced a degree of isolation from the EU and the US.
Yet, new dynamics could steer the situation in a different direction, alongside challenges related to the Special Court in The Hague, the Association of Serb Municipalities (ASM), and relations with Serbia. Regardless of what happens next, this represents a strategic success for Kosovo, offering an opportunity to learn from past mistakes. The second case, which we have addressed in previous articles covering various topics, concerns North Macedonia and Bulgaria. Recent reports indicate a disappointing situation, as it will likely take years to improve relations with Bulgaria, a country that demands constitutional amendments from the Macedonian side to include the Bulgarian minority in the Preamble. Media outlets in Skopje have reported that both sides have held discussions regarding these constitutional changes. North Macedonia’s Foreign Minister, Timco Mucunski, met with Bulgaria’s Foreign Minister, Velislava Petrova, without achieving any concrete results. They did, however, agree to continue their meetings in the future. From this, we can conclude that the leaders of both nations have not yet reached the point where they are effectively learning from the mistakes of the past. The third case I wish to highlight concerns the elections held in Bosnia and Herzegovina on October 4 of this year, foreign interference, and the implications involving American figures in Bosnia and the ties local individuals have with Russia.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Serb candidate Željka Cvijanović, accused by opponents of supporting separatism, has won a seat on the new Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. She was strongly backed by the former President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, who has not been under U.S. sanctions since late 2025. Security concerns have been raised, both in the U.S. and the region, regarding potential cooperation between close associates of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian-backed Serb figures. President Trump has denied these allegations. The fourth case concerns Serbia, where elections scheduled for October 25 of this year have mobilized nationalists, whose rhetoric includes the issue of Kosovo. On October 7, Ivica Dačić, Serbia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Internal Affairs, declared during a speech in Raška that “sooner or later, the Serbian flag will fly over Prizren.”
Meanwhile, “red flags” have been raised in Washington, and concerns have mounted, particularly regarding the “Serbia Act” (H.R. 10183), which aims to closely monitor Serbia’s dealings with Russia and China. These events demonstrate that, within a single week, four distinct incidents occurred, each with a different outcome, yet all carrying the same resonance. They illustrate how external influences can fuel ethnic and religious divisions, much like in 1912–13. Voices echoing the atmosphere of past conflicts are being heard across the region, voices that history has proven to be misguided, having left behind only suffering and casualties. Such rhetoric is nothing new; back in 1912–13, ambitions for new territories turned erstwhile allies into adversaries. The very least that can be done is to avoid repeating the mistakes of 1912–13. Will at least some regional governments and powerful European states now be able to rise to the occasion? It remains to be seen in the coming years whether the aforementioned events will continue along the same trajectory or permanently alter their course.
This article was written specifically for Portalb.mk. Publication rights belong solely to Portalb.mk and the author, in accordance with the agreement between them.