Selim Ibraimi- World politics has changed dramatically before the prospect of peace on the eastern front can be discussed. US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet. They will discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Peace negotiations will have their ups and downs. But in the Balkans, peace on the eastern front leaves the region with open issues. This situation causes prolonged instability.
The EU and some Balkan states, under external pressure, need to take a realistic approach to the current changes. First, governments in the region need to adapt. Other important actors must adjust to the new world that states have just entered. National interest remains the main driver of governments in the international arena. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, Russia, the US, and other countries act based on their national interests. They prioritize what is beneficial for their nations. The question arises whether Balkan states, in this paradigm that is becoming so strong, should follow the same path. In this regard, we have emphasized this in previous articles. States, regardless of their size, act in international politics based on their national interests.
Historically, states have always used this approach since ancient times to maximize economic and, of course, security needs. When discussing states, their role in international relations cannot be ignored. Domestic and international factors interact in a complex way. This interaction shapes the actions of governments in the international arena.
In this context, the governments of the Balkan region have been active for more than three decades. Their involvement started after the fall of the Berlin Wall. These governments emerged from the dissolution of the former Yugoslav federation. They have acted more according to the needs of domestic politics. In some cases, they were influenced by foreign policies. How they will act further at this time is being seen from the statements of the Balkan governments.
Only in Serbia have we had combined actions that were the result of external and internal factors. Similar signs have been observed in North Macedonia. Currently, the government of Prime Minister Hristijan Mickovski depends on external support, especially from right-wing parties.
Skopje officials have begun with reliance on the US and the EU. Their actions depend on internal movements. They always consider the demands of the ruling and opposition parties. Consequently, they have left their fate to external geopolitical actors. These two classic cases demonstrate how various factors influence foreign policy. They say a lot about the behavior of states.
The strength of institutions plays a decisive role in the behavior of states in international politics. The economy also influences this behavior. Additionally, geographical position and armed forces are crucial factors. This clarification is made because the Balkan governments have shown a lack of authority in the anarchic international environment. They acted in an unorganized manner. Rather, they have implemented foreign policies on ideological grounds.
At this moment, governments need to find a balance. They must manage the imperatives of survival and security in the international political system. This must be done alongside their internal and external constraints. Some governments have tried to maintain equilibrium. An example is Serbia. This balance is difficult to continue for a long time.
With the current changes from Washington to the European chancelleries, the policy of balance is expected to end. Therefore, they should consider these theories and practices. The Balkan states need to act based on how global actors move in the international political system.
All other actions that will be outside the movements of global actors are to fail. They will also be accompanied by internal turbulence. In current regional issues, Serbia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, and Kosovo will be influenced by internal factors. These factors will be decisive for actions in regional and global politics.
Recently, right-wing parties have taken shape and strengthened in the EU and the US. These changes will have a direct impact on the Balkans. They will delay the resolution of interethnic and interstate issues. The current issues facing the Balkans and other global actors are significant. If these open issues do not find a solution, it could become a major challenge. Examples include the case of Kosovo with Serbia, and Bosnia and North Macedonia with Bulgaria.
Finally, it should be remembered. A major topic in international politics is not always considered important for small states. In reality, major geopolitical actors have issues. These issues intersect with the interests of small states. Some issues do not intersect, especially regarding those in the Balkans. Therefore, survival in this new era will require rapid adaptation to the new global order.
Adaptation must start from a roughly accurate reading of where the big ones (states ). We will see whether the policy of balancing or aligning the Balkan states in a bloc should continue. This will happen before the EU expands or not with new members. The next question is what the ceasefire in Ukraine will look like. Looking at the situation in the Balkan region, it is very clear. Governments will follow the policy of national interest. They will focus much less on the consequences for others. The process of peace negotiations in Ukraine will greatly influence actions. This will happen not only in the Balkan region but also beyond.
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