Selim Ibraimi- The competition of great powers is becoming increasingly tight. This involves the EU, the former Soviet bloc, and the Balkans, etc. As the inauguration of US President Donald Trump approaches, the international security atmosphere is shifting. His statements about the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada are causing this change. At the end of the week, NATO took control of the air defense of Poland from the US. A few days later, Trump administration officials began their concrete plan against Ukraine and Russia.
The spread of historical echoes by US President-elect Donald Trump is being viewed and assessed with fear by other countries. This fear started 100 years ago. The British geographer Halford Mackinder (1861-1947) described the competition in the “Heartland” as an indispensable necessity. The Heartland is a geographical space. It covers the Arctic and Eurasia. He noted the powers of the time competed there. Coincidentally or not, today it seems that all events are heading in that direction.
The campaign of toughened rhetoric in Washington aims to bring the US more strongly to the world stage. Some analysts believe this effort is essential, at least to be competitive in the 21st century. Apart from criticism from European powers, the policy is right. It serves American defense and national security. Despite the criticism, the rhetoric of such a policy of occupying new territories by the US can help Europeans. It opens doors for other regional political actors in the Balkans. They can participate in the ‘new world’ of competition and survival.
The global stage experiences constant fluctuations. In the Balkans, the year 2025 has started with heated nationalist speeches. Taking advantage of the new international atmosphere, various factors seek economic and territorial dominance in the Balkans. Heated statements made in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, and Serbia incited internal unrest. Instead of competition, political actors in the Balkans are returning to the 19th and 20th centuries. At this stage, European political leaders have not shown improvement. French President Emmanuel Macron leads this sentiment. He called for a new European military coalition. This coalition aims to help fight Russia and other threats as an alternative to NATO.
“We cannot rely on (the US) or the rest of the world,” Macron said. According to him, there is a plan. It involves the creation of a European army. This includes Great Britain, Italy, Poland, the Baltic states, and all those who seek to join. The latest developments highlight that the EU will receive varied attention. The Balkans will also receive varied attention. Additionally, international hotbeds of crisis will be addressed differently. This differentiation is due to the security challenges that both the EU and the US are facing.
In this context, it is not known how the Balkan states will be integrated into the new American project. We have written about this project in recent years. Along these lines, some Balkan governments, such as the Serbian one, have implemented dual policies. Chinese missile systems will enter the Balkans due to defense competition in Europe. It will be Serbia where the Chinese systems will be put into operation by the Serbian army. The Chinese FK-3 missile system will become the main equipment in Serbia. This is due to a mix of military donations from the US and European countries over the years.
The security situation in Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, is becoming increasingly difficult. This is in addition to the incident with the Chinese missile systems. During the paramilitary parade for the “Day of Republika Srpska,” Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević led a delegation from Serbia. This participation drew criticism from officials in Sarajevo and beyond. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik gave an interview on the eve of the “Day of Republika Srpska.” He declared that “the sacred duty for us is to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina.” “If Trump can annex Greenland, so can we.”
In the southern Balkans, between North Macedonia and Bulgaria, things have not gone well in both domestic and foreign politics. Konstantin Kostadinov is the leader of the Bulgarian political party “Renaissance.” He declared that “there is nothing more logical and normal. It is logical for two countries with a common history, origin, language, and people. He mentioned the United States and Canada as examples, suggesting they should become a single state.” These are just a few events that have occurred in the Balkans. Other incidents followed in Kosovo and Serbia.
Global competition is becoming increasingly fierce with belligerent tones. On the regional scene during this phase, we will see some changes in the alliances created decades ago. These changes will be crucial for regional and global politics. They will further strengthen the national right-wing parties. These parties will have the support of the US in the current new alignment. In this context, the transition from great power competition is becoming increasingly possible. Recent statements by Balkan leaders have shown this trend. This shift to a regional and local game pays attention to the past.
Refocusing on the global race damages the already strained interstate relations in the Balkans. At this time and in the coming years, the Balkan states have limited opportunities. They cannot easily integrate into the US agenda. Joining the European powers, as they did in the 19th and 20th centuries, is also challenging. There are high possibilities of regional conflicts.
Finally, to return to the main idea of this article, the US will use alliances. This occurs even though the Trump administration plans to repeat some national projects. These projects involve American expansion of the 18th and 19th centuries and land acquisition. The US will use alliances and apply economic pressure. It will also employ diplomatic and military means. These efforts aim to achieve strategic goals such as survival and maintaining global status. This policy will also be followed by the states that are in this race.
Undoubtedly, the journey will involve many enemies and friends. As I mentioned in this article, the EU, the Balkan countries, and the former Soviet bloc countries will be involved. Everything else remains uncertain. We need to see how quickly the current countries will move in the race for geographical dominance. This race has global and regional implications.
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