Selim Ibraimi- Historically, states have been interested in more than just territories. In addition, wars, misunderstandings, and local conflicts have continued to this day. And they will continue for national interests, resources, and, of course, ideology. In times of global change, all of them have been affected little by little. They have been influenced by changes in the international system and much more.
The growing concern now is how states will survive under such conditions. They face current and future challenges. These challenges are presented not only by non-state actors but also by policymakers.
Since the end of the Cold War, the US has been the main global actor. The primary rule was the continuation of the old order of Western dominance. This lasted until 2010, with the emergence of the multipolar world.
After that, the continuation of the status quo favored the rising states. It benefited the Western world to some extent.
But over the past three years, the status quo has come to an end. There is a risk of erosion of all international law. This indicates a great concern about returning to the first rules of the Cold War. The continuation of the situation carries a high risk. The current situation might lead to small wars around the world.
In this regard, the US, Russia, and Ukraine have reached an agreement to exchange prisoners. The exchange will take place in Abu Dhabi. This occurred at the time of the attempted assassination of a Russian GRU intelligence officer.
Latin America has potential for wars. The Middle East also has potential. The same applies to Europe. These regions face the same conditions of repeated old competition. This competition is not only for resources. It also involves strategic shipping routes and prestige. For example, Canada, after low-level relations with the US, has begun to develop relations outside the sphere of American influence. After a visit to China, Prime Minister Mark Carney signaled openness to deeper cooperation with Turkey.
Carney mentioned that Canada sees “some opportunities to deepen our trade relationship with Turkey.” He noted that formal discussions with President Recep T. Erdogan have begun. Prime Minister Carney added that cooperation could extend to defense and nuclear energy. He also highlighted Turkey’s global leadership in manufacturing and beyond.
In another development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “I hear signals about recognizing the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian to end the war. That wouldn’t change anything. Not everyone would accept that. Our territories remain ours.” That wouldn’t change anything. Not everyone would accept that. Our territories remain ours.
Meanwhile, Norway published its annual national threat assessment. The report says that the biggest change in the global security environment over the past year has been the United States, with Washington’s behavior now directly shaping how Russia and China calculate risks and opportunities.
Norway’s intelligence chief, Nils Andreas Stensones, identified Russia as the most important security challenge, noting that while Moscow aims to undermine Western unity and support for Ukraine, it lacks the economic and diplomatic means to achieve its goals effectively.
The report warns that Norway’s critical infrastructure and energy sector are potential targets for Russian espionage, influence operations, and sabotage.
In this context, as we have noted, the speed of joining the EU varies among the Balkan countries. This gives the region a different picture. The continuation of this different picture is the worst-case scenario for the Balkans’ future.
Economic development and the impact of foreign policy are significant threats. The judicial system and the belief system pose threats, too. Ethnic differences and other factors are also major threats to the future of the Balkans.
Serbia stands out due to its distinct national security advantages. These advantages put other Balkan states in a fragile position. This scenario creates opportunities for influence from external actors.
The US, Russia, and China are influencing international relations. The US is intervening in the Western Hemisphere. Russia is acting in Ukraine. China is rising as a world power with a large economy. This influence risks shifting international relations back to the state they were in before World War I (WWI).
To navigate such a geopolitical and economic environment, it is very important to understand security priorities. For example, in the Balkans, governments should join the EU if possible. They should also join NATO. Additionally, it is important to strengthen regional cooperation according to alliances.
We must accept that we live in turbulent times, which require us to follow some rules and sometimes others. In this regard, moving away from the status quo is a crucial decision. States must take this step because we are close to the third decade in a different world. There is a new landscape with different actors.
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