Selim Ibraimi- Recent events in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) are not good signs. After the court announced that Milorad Dodik (the Serb separatist leader of Republika Srpska) had violated the laws of the federation, the ethnic and security situation deteriorated to the point of secession of Serbs from BiH. Days earlier, prosecutors ordered his arrest, but Dodik has asked for help from Russia to veto EUFOR. The paramilitary forces and the Serb government there have been working hard to make secession from the federation only a matter of time. Considering the favorable situation of Serbs in the Balkans and of Russia on the international stage, and especially after the change in the US position, the dissolution of BiH is imminent, according to some analysts. Since 2008, the President of the Serbs, Milorad Dodik, has been undermining the laws and constitution of BiH with the idea of joining Serbia. These have been assessed as projects where all Serbs should live in one state.
The international community, the US, and the EU have expressed concerns for years, but Dodik has ignored international demands without any consequences. He has been blacklisted by the US and the UK. Recently, he has issued some harsh criticisms of the State Department. But it must be admitted that the efforts to arrest him have changed the dynamics with a high probability that events will take different forms that point to concrete actions for final secession from the federation. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, Milorad Dodik’s actions are unacceptable and violate the sovereignty of BiH. The actions of the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, are undermining BiH’s institutions and are threatening its security and stability.
“The US encourages political leaders to engage in constructive and responsible dialogue. We call on our partners in the region to join us in opposing this dangerous and destabilizing behavior,” Marco Rubio underlined in a post on X. The US must work with the EU on concrete steps, especially in the military, if they want the Bosnia of Dayton to remain the same. In this line, additional EU peacekeepers are seen in BiH as part of supporting the instability that exists in BiH. Realistically, even the arrest of Dodik will not help the current situation in BiH if the future of the federation is not clearly defined at this time when the international factor itself, despite the statements, does not have a clear vision for the future of BiH.
As for the reconfiguration of geopolitics, BiH can fight to maintain unity, but the Muslim part of the federation is incapable of doing so. The option of separating Serbs from Bosniaks would come as a solution. Staying together without the will of Serbian politicians and citizens is a waste of time with no benefit for the federation. The US and the EU have not openly supported such plans for the collapse of the federation, but the future is likely to move the processes in that direction. Despite international dilemmas and domestic fears, NATO has expressed concerns about recent developments, always supporting the integrity of BiH. Alliance Secretary Mark Rutte stressed that NATO remains committed to the stability of the region and the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of BiH.
“The Dayton Peace Agreement is the cornerstone of peace in this country and must be respected, and we support the Office of the High Representative; any action that undermines Dayton, the constitutional order, or national institutions is unacceptable.” “Inflammatory rhetoric and actions are dangerous; they pose a direct threat to the stability and security of BiH.” Secretary Rutte also underlined the need for political leaders in BiH to “do their part” and “take responsibility” for the progress and stability of their country.
“This is not 1992, and NATO and its international partners present and engaged in BiH will not allow a security vacuum to emerge,” Rutte said. On the other hand, to undermine the policies and actions of the West, Milorad Dodik has played an important role in leading the actions for an independent state. Thus, the parliament of Republika Srpska has approved a draft of a new constitution aimed at secession, giving Republika Srpska full national powers, including the creation of an army and judiciary.
At a time when the US is facing domestic and international challenges and an incompetent EU, it will be very difficult to keep the federation united and punish the Serbs for secessionist tendencies. In short, the future of the federation is in the hands of Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs, who must ultimately decide on the future of the federation without the need for another conflict.
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