By Blerim Abedini, ISSD-NM– The Middle East has long faced political instability. It has been affected by armed conflicts. Geopolitical tensions are also prevalent in the region. The instability disrupts the production and transport of energy resources, which has global consequences. Conflicts in the region often lead to reduced oil production or supply disruptions. They increase uncertainty in global markets. This results in rising energy prices. These effects contribute to inflation worldwide, slow economic growth, and can even trigger global financial instability.
The military conflict in the Middle East led to a halt in oil exports from the Persian Gulf of up to 90%, amounting to only 2 million barrels per day. Due to a lack of cooperation in the conflict, President Trump called on Europe to find alternative oil suppliers outside the US. This further complicates Europe’s oil supply, as imports from Russia via Hungary have also been reduced to 6% or 132,000 barrels per day. Since the structural shift away from Russian energy in 2022, European countries have significantly diversified their oil supply.
It plays a crucial role in the global economy because it holds a large share of the world’s oil reserves.
According to OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) as intergovernmental organization Estimated production from Persian Gulf OPEC members for 2025:
Saudi Arabia: ~9–10 million bpd
Iraq: ~4–4.5 million bpd,
UAE: ~3–3.5 million bpd,
Iran: ~3–3.5 million bpd,
Kuwait: ~2.5–3 million bpd,
Bahrein~0.18 million bpd (non-member of OPEC) and
Qatar ~1.3 –1.9 million bpd (non-member of OPEC).
Combined total: ~23.4–26 million barrels per day. Instead, global production is about 86 million barrels/day (crude). Only 10–15 countries dominate global supply, especially these are the Middle East, North America, and Russia.
The US oil production (2024–2025) was ≈ 13.0 – 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and when including natural gas liquids and other liquids became: ≈ 20 million bpd total petroleum liquids.
The EU‘s oil imports are currently dominated by three main regions:
The United States: The U.S. has become Europe’s largest single supplier of petroleum, accounting for approximately 15–16% of total imports.
Norway: As a local neighbor with extensive North Sea infrastructure, Norway provides about 12–14% of Europe’s crude oil.
Kazakhstan: A vital supplier for Central European refineries, Kazakhstan accounts for roughly 9–13% of imports, primarily via the CPC pipeline.
Saudi Arabia and Iraq are secondary and emerging suppliers for the EU. The Persian Gulf nations provide about 8–10% of Europe’s crude oil imports are. Libya, Algeria, Guyana, Brazil, and the United Kingdom are also significant contributors.
Economic ties with the European Union mean that any global crisis affecting Europe also affects Balkan economies indirectly.
Greece: Greece is a major refining hub for the entire region. It imports crude from a highly diverse set of partners, including Iraq, Kazakhstan, Libya, and the USA. In 2026, Greece emerged as a leading exporter of refined fuels to its northern neighbors.
Bulgaria: Bulgaria was historically 100% dependent on Russian oil. Bulgaria’s Lukoil Neftohim Burgas refinery has transitioned to non-Russian crudes. This transition took place in late 2024/2025. It now processes oil from Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Tunisia.
Romania: Romania has a significant domestic production of oil. However, it still needs to import to meet demand. Its primary foreign sources are Kazakhstan (via the Black Sea) and Azerbaijan.
Serbia: Since EU sanctions fully blocked Russian oil, Russia used to supply roughly 25% of its oil. Now, Serbia imports the majority of its crude from Iraq, which accounts for over 50%. The rest is sourced from Kazakhstan and occasionally Norway.
Croatia: As a key transit hub, Croatia imports crude via tankers from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and Iraq). They also produce a small amount of domestic oil.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Lacking major active refineries of its own, Bosnia primarily imports refined products (gasoline and diesel) from neighbors like Croatia, Serbia, and Hungary.
North Macedonia‘s fuel supply is heavily integrated with regional partners and the European market:
Greece: This is the most critical partner for liquid fuels. Most refined products enter North Macedonia from Greek refineries (such as those owned by Hellenic Energy) via rail or truck. Bulgaria: A major regional supplier of refined mineral products and fuels. Serbia: A key trade partner for energy products and general imports. European Union (Other): Germany and Italy are also significant suppliers of specialized mineral products and chemical derivatives.
Two major infrastructure projects are currently receiving its energy: Thessaloniki-Skopje Pipeline Restart: In February 2026, the 213-km pipeline connecting the Port of Thessaloniki to the OKTA refinery was officially prepared for restart after a 13-year pause. Crucially, it has been converted to transport diesel fuel rather than crude oil, significantly increasing the security and efficiency of the country’s fuel supply.
Gas Diversification: As of 2025–2026, it has begun importing natural gas from Azerbaijan and the US (LNG) via interconnections with Bulgaria and Greece to reduce its historical 100% reliance on Russian gas.
Albania‘s fuel market is dominated by imports of refined petrol and diesel:
Saudi Arabia: In 2025, Saudi Arabia became the leading supplier, providing approximately 35% (257,000 tons) of the country’s oil imports. Major Importers: Large private firms like Kastrati Energy Trade and Gega Oil handle the bulk of these shipments, which typically arrive via the Suez Canal.
Other Corridors: Regular imports also arrive through maritime routes from Turkey, the Black Sea region, and the United States.
Kosovo: Regional Partners (CEFTA): A significant portion of imports comes from North Macedonia, Albania, and Serbia. European Union: Roughly 43% of Kosovo’s total imports (across all goods, including fuels) originate from the EU, with Germany and Italy being major contributors.
Montenegro, relies heavily on its immediate neighbors and the European market for its energy needs.
Serbia: Serbia remains Montenegro’s largest overall trading partner, providing a substantial share of its imported fuels and machinery.
Greece and the EU: Much of the refined fuel used in Montenegro comes from Greek refineries like Hellenic Petroleum. It also enters through the Adriatic from other EU Mediterranean members.
China and Germany have significant influence. They are major partners for machinery and transport equipment. Furthermore, they play roles in the broader logistics and supply chain for energy-related infrastructure in the country.
Although geographically distant, the Balkans are economically sensitive to global changes. Countries in the region depend heavily on imports of energy and raw materials. Impacts include increased costs of imported fuel. Electricity expenses rise. Higher transportation and production costs occur. Citizens face diminished purchasing power. Conflicts in the Middle East and beyond have far-reaching consequences that extend into global and regional economies. The Balkans, due to their economic structure and reliance on imports, are particularly vulnerable to rising fuel and food prices.
2026-04-03