Selim Ibraimi- US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on Friday to reach a possible end to the war in Ukraine. The US purchased Alaska from Russia more than a century ago in 1867. The US position at the time was strong, with signs that it was becoming a great power. Now, the US debt trap and financial difficulties have raised doubts about the maintenance of its global status, with consequences for countries that have good relations with the US.
The high US debt, which this week reached 37 trillion US dollars, may seem worrying, perhaps only for the US, but in reality, it is not. Countries and nations that have been dependent on the US for decades should be more concerned. The high US debt and global weakening are some of the serious problems for the world and the Balkans with long-term effects.
The main question is whether the US can support its allies and for how long? The first term of President Donald Trump and now his second show a lack of open support and harsh rhetoric against the EU and other US-friendly countries. But, as I mentioned, the US debt is a reality that cannot be hidden; it must be seriously understood by governments that rely on current US aid, and when it comes to the US in international organizations.
In particular, weak states that have so far been diplomatically, economically, and militarily dependent on the US will face new problems. And here, of course, are the Balkan states, which in various forms have been supported by the US since the end of World War II (WWII) and especially since 1991. While the US is facing major domestic, racial, social, educational, and economic challenges, moreover, at the top of the current problems is the national debt, which continues to grow day by day.
In the current situation, the US cannot support all friends and allies due to the domestic and international circumstances in which the US finds itself. With 37 trillion dollars in public debt, the US is finding it difficult to project strength and lead the world’s democracies. According to a CFR report, the increase in debt service costs, which is projected to increase from about 2.5 percent of GDP to almost 7.5 percent over the next three decades, is diverting funds from defense, education, foreign policy, humanitarian aid and more.
Increasing domestic instability, failure to fulfill all diplomatic commitments, and the continued growth of the US national debt will further weaken the US position in Europe and the Balkans. On the other hand, the credibility of US financial stability for decades secured the US dollar a global status, becoming the main means of exchange. But now credibility is declining, as the BRICS countries are complicating the US ability and the dollar’s ability to remain the main pillar of global trade.
According to the CFR, China’s role as the world’s largest creditor to developing countries raises concerns about a debt trap, where China could subjugate its partners. The US, for well-known reasons, is forced to cut financial resources in areas where it is necessary to be present. Now after this summary, it is good to take a look at some cases from antiquity and the Middle Ages, where public debt and fiscal burdens affected the ability of states in foreign policy, economic, military, etc.
Thus, we can highlight the public debt of city-states in Ancient Greece during the 4th century BC. In Ancient Rome, it lasted for several centuries, at a time when the empire was at the peak of expansion and the need for large expenditures was increasing. This happened from the 1st century to the 4th century AD when the decline of the empire began.
Later, as usual, the Byzantine Empire faced the same shocks in the 12th-13th centuries, with a catastrophic end in 1453 with the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople. Buried deep in foreign debt and by the Ottoman conquest, the Byzantine Empire finally disintegrated, never to be revived. One could continue with Spain, Portugal, Andalusia, the Islamic Caliphates, Great Britain, etc., which in various forms disintegrated as global powers.
The above examples show patterns that can be repeated today, because the public debt of a country the size of the US undoubtedly brings down its power. Compared to today, inflation and debt to foreign countries provide good parallels for today’s events that the US and the West are going through, with an impact on the whole world, and in particular for countries that have had good economic, diplomatic and military relations with the USA. As we have emphasized above, the Balkan countries have been directly or indirectly part of the US finances, and the debt in the US, of course, should be taken seriously by Balkan governments, which still see the continuation of strategic ties with the US now and in the future.
But at this time, governments of Balkan states and beyond should not think that money will flow as easily from the US as before. As for support in regional and global crises and in international institutions, US allies should not expect any great support. This is due to the weakening of the US position in the world. In this situation, which is not known when it will end, the question arises whether the US can do more for its allies and friends in the coming decades.
While all forecasts say that after 2050 the world political system will be different from today’s, it will be up to states to decide on their alliances and partners. The loss of global status has historically been caused by the lack of discoveries, the weakening of education, excessive spending, economic decline, etc. And finally, being inattentive, other powers have risen to compete, especially the US.
The consequences are clear, for the countries that relied heavily on the US since the end of the Second World War (WWII). In the coming years, as never before since the collapse of empires in Europe and the Balkans, governments will have to do things differently with and without the US. Of course, always within the framework of national interests and avoiding the influence of authoritarian states.
However, the dilemma will persist as to whether they can do this now or when, ultimately, the US will enter an even deeper crisis of decline and global representation. The case of Ukraine and the talks with Russia highlight these strong signs, which have been analyzed, and US allies may face them from time to time.
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