The ‘Powder Keg’ and the new U.S. administration

Selim Ibraimi (CSSD)-The annexation of Crimea by Russia on 2014 brought memories of war developed in this region by European Powers, Russia and Turkey.The period of 1815-1914 in Europe is described as by one of relative peace, but during this period there were a number of vicious, but usually short-lived, wars between various European powers.

In general only two, and rarely more, countries were involved, as was the case with French and Austro-Hungarian involvement in the wars of Italian unification and Prussia’s three wars which Bismarck triggered in his calculated mission to unify Germany under a single emperor. The Crimean War of 1854-56 was the exception, involving Britain, France, Russia, Turkey and – the Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia. This war was essentially blundered into, and though it had the potential for expansion to a general European War it ended more by exhaustion of the ill-prepared combatants than by any permanent resolution of the issues.

The Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78 – had the potential to grow not only into a general European War, but into something even bigger, due to its strategic implications. In the worst case it might have brought 1914 forward by four decades. When Russia and Turkey fought on this occasion the dynamics had changed, strategically, politically and technologically, as compared with the Crimean conflict.

Today after short tensions between Russia and Turkey, under the governance of Vladimir Putin and Redzep Taip Erdogan a new situation is underway with strategic implications for the Western Balkans.Nevertheless U.S. under new administration of President Donald Trump must define the foreign policy for the Balkans.

Particularly US has two options :Continuing the same policy as previous U.S. administrations and the second: A shift policy with changes on foreign policy actions with concrete steps.

Part of this story is based on Dawlish Chronicles.