Selim Ibraimi- Last week, Albania opened Cluster 4 with the EU. This was an extraordinary diplomatic move towards Tirana’s official EU membership before 2030. Other EU officials said that Albania and the EU will be able to complete all accession chapters much faster. This is good news for Albania and the Balkan region.
At the same time, Germany presented itself as a pessimistic state. It signaled to other Balkan countries that membership is no longer important. Other options are being considered. The new agreement of coalition partners in Germany will have consequences. According to the authoritative German newspaper “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”, the future federal government is skeptical about EU enlargement. Germany initially requires some structural reforms within the EU and precise steps from the countries involved in the accession process. After the good news from Luxembourg, there was an increase in German pessimism. In EU geopolitics towards the Balkans, Ukraine, China, and US tariffs, Italy emerged as a significant geopolitical factor. This was especially shown during the recent visit of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to the US.
The meeting with President Donald Trump presents an opportunity to discuss tariff policy on Italian and then EU terms. This increases Italy’s influence not only in the EU. Is Giorgia Meloni’s visit seen as a challenge to the EU? It appears as a move by a member of the union to negotiate a trade agreement on Italy’s terms. According to the media, Prime Minister Meloni has invited President Trump to visit Italy. A meeting with EU officials is expected during his visit. They would discuss trade and tariffs. Meloni seems to be showing that Italy is an important actor in transatlantic relations and not only. Italy’s initiative is interpreted as a challenge to EU unity. Critics say Meloni is acting with a national agenda. She aims to secure trade favors only for Italy. Germany and Italy are on two tracks. Germany is pessimistic about enlargement. Italy seeks to secure trade with the US on its terms. This signals another phase. The membership of the Balkan countries lose its current momentum. While for some Balkan governments, the phase of EU turmoil is to be welcomed.
The troubled EU-US relations are certainly bad news for the Balkan states. The EU is trying to make a deal with the US to prevent financial losses. It will need all EU members to stand together. The focus will be on the economy, diplomacy, and securing the EU’s borders. The growing threat from domestic political forces opposing potential members from the Balkans and beyond is clear. It serves as a message to all about how things will go in the EU. In this context, Albania’s progress will falter if pessimism grows in Berlin.
Such policies from the European centers will slow down the already superficial reforms of several other Balkan countries. Essentially, in turbulent times, different opinions can take shape temporarily. This occurs until the EU finds a solution with the US, China, and Russia. Despite the dilemmas among European states about enlargement with Balkan members, Italy and Germany have provided important support. This support has kept Balkan governments on the right track. Meloni’s visit to the US offers hope for Balkan membership in the EU. However, German and French skepticism will pose new concerns. According to Italian media reports, Italian Prime Minister Meloni has sought to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. The tariffs are 20% on EU goods and 25% on steel, aluminium, and cars. These tariffs affect Italy’s export-led economy. This economy recorded a €40 billion trade surplus with the US in 2024. Meloni has backed the EU’s proposal to cut tariffs under the slogan “Make the West great again”.
Germany, under new Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has also backed the “zero-to-zero” tariff proposal. US tariffs of 20% on EU goods, including Germany’s export-heavy economy (trade turnover with the US at €252.8 billion in 2024), are seen as a major threat to Germany’s industrial and automotive base. The EU and the US must negotiate the fate of transatlantic trade. EU-US relations also influence the path to membership for Balkan states. The most realistic scenario is that Montenegro and Albania will become members of the union by 2030 or earlier. Currently, the dynamics of EU-US relations and EU candidate countries affect potential membership timelines. Serbia and North Macedonia are predicted to join the union between 2030 and 2035. The path with a pessimistic outlook is for Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. We should consider the possibility that North Macedonia, under the current foreign policy course, will enter non-Western economic alliances. This shift happened due to influences from Bulgaria. On this path, Serbia remains a country that poses concerns for the EU. It is known for its double standards.
Ultimately, without unified EU action, the credibility of the union during 2025-26 decreases. The next five years are crucial for the EU. This period is important to secure the European future of the Balkans. This is amid turbulence in Eastern Europe, interstate disputes in the Balkans, and international tensions. The Balkan states need to implement more reforms. They must resolve disputes by distancing themselves from the Russian or Chinese orbit. This way, they can gain the trust of Italy, Germany, France, the Netherlands, etc. This will show their commitment to the commitments made. Regardless of future developments, the Balkan candidate states need to resemble countries with standards where the law is applied. In the meantime, politics at the transatlantic level have side effects. A direct impact will occur if Euro-American misunderstandings are not resolved. Until then, governments need to take concrete and serious steps to improve the economy, neighborly relations, and much more.
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