Selim Ibraimi- Russia continues to threaten EU countries with new threats. Meanwhile, the emergency plans of European countries are being updated. The leaders of the European Political Community (EPC) agreed on war, the economy, and several other problems during the Copenhagen Summit. Now, what comes after the words and statements from the EU? More precisely, should European countries do more to increase their weapons production capacities? Production capacities and regular redeployment remain the best options for European countries. Therefore, this means that emergency plans must take shape and be ready in case of an attack by Russia.
For leaders from all over Europe who gathered in Denmark, critics said that the latest decisions should be translated into concrete measures against Russia. Thus, Kaja Kallas, the EU representative for foreign policy and security, said that Russia is causing extraordinary damage in Ukraine.
“It is not fair that someone else should pay for them. In the European Council, we will discuss a compensation loan, backed by frozen Russian assets, to help Ukraine.”
However, as the German news agency DPA reported, EU leaders are having some difficulty reaching an agreement on Russian assets due to security and defense dilemmas. Several EU countries have pledged not to do anything about Russian assets without a unanimous decision.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday that he expects a decision in the coming weeks, despite criticism from Belgium. “We have had a very intensive discussion about the use of Russian assets to further help Ukraine,” Chancellor Merz said. However, Belgian Prime Minister Bart Dewever sharply criticized the plans presented by German Chancellor Merz and European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen to use frozen Russian funds, which currently amount to 210 billion euros. These are not the only concerns and disagreements between European states. The dilemmas continue on other issues regarding Ukraine and Moldova’s EU membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that his country is ready to start EU accession negotiations, adding that this membership would benefit European security. On the other hand, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that “the EU has decided to go to war.” They (the EU) presented their war strategy on how to defeat the Russians. Orban described the EU’s plans as a terrible thing.
EU countries have long been reviewing emergency plans that point to a possible confrontation with Russia. Some time ago, the EU called on citizens to stock up on food, water, and other essentials for at least 72 hours, as war, cyberattacks, climate change, and various diseases increase the chances of a crisis. Thus, senior European officials have expressed concern that in the event of a confrontation with Russia, the exact number of wounded and dead will depend on the intensity of the fighting.
“Realistically, we are talking about a figure of about a thousand wounded bodies per day,” a senior German official told Reuters. Germany is not the only country to increase planning for mass casualties in the face of a war with Russia. Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, and the Baltic states are also preparing for all possible scenarios. France has also put its hospitals on war alert. Russia’s growing military production, according to the EU, poses a threat that could arrive there before 2029. According to Germany’s defense chief, General Carsten Breuer, this is what analysts are estimating by 2029. “We need to be ready by 2029,” he said. “If you ask me now, is this a guarantee that it won’t happen before 2029? “I would say no, it’s not. So we need to be able to fight.”
In the UK, government officials are updating contingency plans in the event of a Russian air strike. Former NATO commander Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon told The Sun newspaper that “Britain is Putin’s target and we are likely to be the first to be attacked.”
“Britain really needs to dust off its contingency plans,” he said. In this regard, the EC has presented the union’s strategy. According to the EC, the strategy aims to increase the EU’s civilian and military preparedness for future crises. The strategy is only a document, which aims to assist member states in transforming their armed forces, relying on existing defense industrial programs, in investments to acquire high-level capabilities in critical areas such as naval, land, air, etc. EU member states and those in the process of accession should focus on a common market in defense services with a focus on increasing defense capabilities and joint procurement. How much will it cost? Whether the EU will get there remains to be seen. A good case in point is now that Russian drones and military aircraft have violated NATO airspace. Member states have the opportunity to work together and spend on defense, attack, etc.
The EU’s plans for crisis and war are several. We can start with the “Readiness 2030” plan, otherwise called “ReArmEurope”, 2025. The plan aims to reach a budget of up to 800 billion euros in defense spending by 2030. Fears of a possible Russian invasion have pushed the EC to go further, calling for careful cooperation in stockpiling and joint procurement, complementing NATO strategies. In addition to “ReArmEurope”, the EC also has other programs at its disposal, such as: “EU Rapid Deployment Capacity” (RDC), “Security Action for Europe” (SAFE), “Eastern Flank Surveillance”, “Civil Preparedness Guidelines”, “Hybrid Threat Framework”, etc. According to the document, the plans are coordinated through the EC, the European External Action Service (EEAS), and the European Defense Agency (EDA). According to the EU, the plans are based on the Strategic Compass 2022 and the Annual Defense Review 2024 (CARD) in order to identify the weaknesses of European countries in the field of defense.
While the EU plans provide a framework, the implementation varies according to the geographical location of the countries. Many of them are in line with the countries’ plans, and some are not. The overall needs of the EU troops for self-defense without American help are up to 300 thousand additional personnel and an annual increase in military spending of 250 billion euros. Some obstacles imposed by international conventions have led some EU and NATO member states to withdraw from these conventions. Poland and the Baltic states have withdrawn from the 1997 “Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Mines”, known as the Ottawa Treaty. How many more European states will do so remains to be seen during 2026, when NATO member states have pledged to increase their weapons production capacities.