Selim Ibraimi- The vacuum of power has been a feature of geopolitics or geostrategy since antiquity. The vacuum is typically represented by the decline or withdrawal of dominant powers and the efforts of other powers to fill the resulting power gap. Theoretically, the vacuum reflects the anarchic nature of international politics. In political life or practice, the vacuum encourages conflicts, wars, and sometimes balance. There is no specific phase when a vacuum emerges. Various factors and societal dynamics can contribute to the vacuum’s growth and persistence over an extended period. Throughout history, the geopolitical vacuum has always been interpreted and used differently by empires, states, and modern governments.
Let us now analyze the vacuum from a theoretical to a practical perspective, focusing on the Balkans. While the Balkans is partially ready to join the EU, there have always been legitimate concerns about what will happen to the rest of the region. Some countries, such as Albania and Montenegro, based on EU reports, are close to membership due to their reforms and close alignment with EU policies. Others, like North Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, due to disputes, lack of rule of law, and many unresolved issues, remain outside the process of rapid integration, putting the region at risk of becoming a “desert” of states with high corruption and crime. At a time of growing concerns about what awaits Ukraine and other fragile states, the Balkans, which has historically been a hotspot for wars and instability, must be closely monitored in modern politics to see what will happen to the region in the next 3-5 years of political vacuum.
Regarding the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, there have been many reports that both governments are ready to move forward with substantive agreements. However, the Brussels and Ohrid Agreements (2023) have not produced good relations between the two countries. Kosovo has stated it is ready to move forward when Serbia is, but so far, Serbia has played politics, and the situation remains unchanged, with no clear path for what the future holds for Serbia and Kosovo. The latest statement by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić indicates no positive movement between the two states, nor from the states that do not recognize Kosovo. “We had very successful meetings here in Odesa. This is my fourth time participating in the Southeast Europe-Ukraine Summit and my first time on Ukrainian territory. I thanked our Ukrainian hosts, President Zelensky, for respecting Serbia’s territorial integrity. As you saw, there were no representatives from Pristina here,” Vučić said. “This is about Kosovo. As you know, we adhere to the UN Charter and Resolution 1244, which states that Kosovo is part of Serbia. Twenty-two out of 27 EU member states have already recognized Kosovo’s independence, while five have not – and that is the problem. Belgrade is not ready to recognize Kosovo’s independence,” Vučić added.
Bulgarian-Macedonian relations are also entering a critical era due to the rise of nationalism in North Macedonia under the policies of the current government in Skopje. Relations are at a critical stage and show no signs of improvement. The Mickoski government hopes that the future of the deadlock in relations with Bulgaria will be discussed in The Hague, Netherlands, during the NATO Summit at the end of June (2025). Skopje officials hope for a revision of the French Proposal, which they believe could resolve strained Skopje-Sofia relations and open the door for North Macedonia’s EU membership. Meanwhile, the Bulgarian government has made it clear that Skopje must adhere to agreed commitments. These are two key issues in the Balkans where the geopolitical vacuum could be exploited by external and internal actors, as was the case in Banjska in 2023 in Kosovo. Operating in such a vacuum requires skill and strength for any government.
In general, since the collapse of the SFRY, the Balkans have lacked a great power authority capable of filling the political, social, and economic vacuum. Therefore, in the current situation in the Balkans, we see a collapse of authority, economic and social decline, and a rise in internal and external conflicts. The continuation of the vacuum over three decades has created a situation that does not change, or changes depending on external pressure from authoritarian states and non-state actors. The power vacuum is inevitable and will remain with us for decades due to the lack of strong and stable institutions in the Balkans, particularly in fragile states struggling with reform and EU integration in the future. As the Balkans remains divided between states moving toward a stronger unified authority and others aiming to stay outside, the recurrence of conflicts will remain active, with the tendency for this region to never fully become European.
It must be reiterated that in this vacuum, there has always been a tendency for a stronger authority compared to other states, such as Serbia, which, in the last hundred years since its break from the Ottoman Empire, has sought to play the role of a dominant power. The repetition of this scenario in the Balkan vacuum will always bring tensions and instability. In this regard, international actors often face difficulties in coordinating failures and keeping crises under control, except for interventions in November 1995 in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo in March 1999. Over the past three decades, the EU and NATO have tried to fill this geopolitical vacuum. However, as the world changes and the East gains power, it will be difficult for such institutions to remain active for long if the Balkan states themselves do not function within this vacuum. These are some examples for readers of what the vacuum brings and how it manifests in politics. Other cases could be explored, but fundamentally, the vacuum must be seen as an integral part of politics. In theoretical and practical terms, all major international relations theories address the vacuum, power, benefits, and consequences. Likewise, in political philosophy and ontological aspects, the power vacuum has been part of the debate from Machiavelli and Hobbes to recent existentialist authors and many others.
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