Selim Ibraimi—Changes in international politics are inevitable. States focus on the history of bilateral relations for their present and future. They also rely on multilateral relations. In this process, competition between states has not been missing for resources and dominance over other states.
However, throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, great states have engaged in strategic competition. This competition has never been without consequences for the weakest states or those in the middle. In the meantime, Donald Trump’s victory in the US reminds us of his previous actions in foreign policy. It also reminds us of his trade relations with opponents, friends, and allies. During the US election campaign, Trump’s speeches targeted China and European countries.
For us, it is important to see the Trump administration’s actions with the EU. We must also understand its role in this influential decade in the Balkans. Of course, the trade war or US tariffs against the EU and China are significant too. In the race between the US and China, it will be difficult for the EU and Europe to adapt.
Uncertainties and surprises in the competing states add to this competition. These factors increase the fear of others. French President Emmanuel Macron said that Donald Trump was elected by the Americans to protect the interests of the Americans.
“The question that we as Europeans must ask ourselves is, are we ready to protect the interests of Europeans”? President Macron’s concern is right. The EU must do more to maintain its global status. This effort should continue for at least the next three decades. And for this ongoing uncertainty, Europe must be prepared during 2025 for expected and unexpected events.
Trade, economy, and competition for military dominance during the years with Trump will directly impact the EU. This impact will, of course, extend to the Balkans. When competition is developing, the EU struggles to pay attention to all allies. The dominant powers are in a close race.
Let’s focus on the possible trade war between the US and China. We should also consider the role of the EU. EU-China relations need attention. Especially now, the position of the EU will require the joining of all European forces. This is essential to keep the union strong from the consequences of the trade war between China and the US.
The European states caught between the two superpowers will have to use all economic means. This is especially necessary during 2025 to face a possible crisis in the EU. Besides the economy, European countries focus more on security and defense. They do so despite being members of NATO. In this inevitable new trade war, the EU has several economic advantages.
The EU with a budget of 19.40 trillion (GDP), and a population of 326.7 million holds an almost equal status with the US and China at the global level. Trade and technology in the EU is at the highest level. The EU is doing very well in these areas with great competition from China, the US, and Asian countries. The EU is a major trading partner with both the US and China.
In this regard, Donald Trump will head the new leadership in the US. Nevertheless, the EU will be able to face this challenge. They will handle it just like they did during Trump’s first term (2016-20). During Trump, the US will engage in European affairs. Specifically, this involves the fate of Ukraine and some hot spots in the Balkans.
Here European states can play a leading role in economic reconstruction during talks on the future of Ukraine. They can prevent Chinese economic penetration in Ukraine’s recovery. Let’s return to trade competition. US tariffs can go up to 30 percent on European goods. Tariffs on Chinese goods can reach over 100 percent.
From a historical perspective, the US and the EU have had excellent trade relations since World War II. The current trade exchange between the US and the EU amounts to more than 1 trillion dollars. However, the issue of tariffs remains the biggest challenge. This deepened into a new crisis after January 2025.
This opens a new path for the EU to China. This represents a new approach between the two giants in global trade. If the US tries to take the EU out of the game, the global impact would be huge. The US cannot afford a global tariff war with the EU, China, and the rest of the world. The Trump administration is to impose special tariffs on European countries. This is a measure to protect American interests. However, many critics say this has negative effects on consumers in the US.
Despite the fear, European countries should promote competition by highlighting scientific discoveries. They should not allow the complicated relationship between the US and China to influence the EU and the Balkans. States should solve economic issues by increasing domestic production and not by unnecessary wars.
In this period, diplomacy will play an unprecedented role. It will be essential in managing relations and disputes between states. High tariffs between the US, the EU, and China would create significant challenges for the weak economies. This is especially true for the Balkan states which are trying to recover and grow. And of course, those hoping for integration into global markets.
Therefore, drastic changes in the global economy and high tariffs will affect the stability of countries.
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