Selim Ibraimi- Student protests in Serbia determine the country’s future towards the EU and relations with neighboring countries. It becomes clear that the Serbian government and President Aleksandar Vučić (Serbian Progressive Party) are in a disadvantageous position. This is due to corruption policies since coming to power in 2012. The recent protests in Serbia were triggered by the tragic case in Vojvodina. They also reflect the Serbian government’s harsh policies towards the opposition. Furthermore, the difficult economic situation plays a role. Some time ago, Serbian citizens opposed the central government’s plans to start a lithium mining project. This project had support from Germany and several EU member states. Serbia, in these complicated relations among itself, and with neighboring nations, is extending its integration path towards the EU. Although the EU is ready to quickly accept Serbia into the EU, a semi-authoritarian regime poses challenges. Strong ties with Russia deepen the issues. Additionally, issues with Kosovo complicate matters. It seems clear that Belgrade officials are playing on many sides. In contrast to the 90s of the 20th century, Serbia pursued a policy of confrontation with the West. Over the past two decades, the country has improved its image and position within the EU. Serbia now maintains excellent relations with the US, Russia, and China. The ongoing protests in Serbia suggest that the path to EU integration is not easy. Adding to this difficulty are the disputes with Kosovo and Bosnia. Political dissatisfaction in Serbia signals rising Serbian nationalism. Additionally, the state implements aggressive policies that aim to destabilize its neighbors. Of course, we are witnessing student protests. The Serbian government is exerting various pressures. Its goal is to suppress the opposition voice led by Dragan Djilas. The recent protests show that students and Serbian citizens are seeking to exploit the discontent to overthrow the Vucic regime. In the context of the internal political crisis, critics have targeted the Serbian government. They accused it of violating human rights and restricting the press. According to a report by Amnesty International, Serbian Intelligence Agency officials installed spyware. They placed it on the phones of dozens of journalists and independent activists. While domestic pressure is growing, the Serbian government has continued its East-West balancing policies. During his visit to China, Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric received support. His Chinese counterpart promised support for Serbian sovereignty. China will firmly support Serbia in safeguarding its national sovereignty. It will also support its independence and territorial integrity. Additionally, China will actively support Serbia’s development and prosperity,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday. The US seems to be taking action. It is another move in this competition among the Americans, the Europeans, and the Chinese for Serbia. This move will have some effects on Serbia’s domestic and foreign policy.
“Washington plans to impose sanctions against Serbia’s main gas supplier,” said Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić last week. President Vučić said that Serbia has been officially informed that the sanctions will come into effect on January 1, 2025. The State Department and the US Embassy in Belgrade have not made any additional comments about the announced sanctions. Serbia relies on Russian gas. The Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) further distributes the gas. NIS is also owned by the Russian corporation “Gazprom Neft”. The EU continued its line of international sanctions against Russia. It reflects Serbian policies of violating international obligations. Additionally, it is part of the East-West diplomacy efforts. On December 16, the EU adopted the 15th package of sanctions against Russia. In addition to targeting key individuals and entities, the EU expanded trade restrictions to include 32 new entities. These economic entities are based in countries such as Serbia, China, India, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Serbia will soon face direct impacts. Its closure of diplomatic, financial, and economic activities with Russia will change Serbia’s domestic politics. Additionally, it will affect the economy. Reports indicate that the US and Russia are collaborating on a plan. They aim to end the war in Ukraine and find a peaceful solution. However, the sanctions may not have any effect. They will be lifted for Russia in 2025. However, in terms of east-west policies, Serbia appears to have won in the economy and trade. Economic reports for 2024 show that Serbia has large export values with the US and the EU. These exports have a direct impact on the rise of the Serbian economy. This occurs regardless of the current political situation. The Serbian factor is growing as a regional geopolitical actor. This growth seems to be beneficial for the EU and the US. International developments don’t seem to affect Serbia’s changes. The Serbian east-west game, the current situation, and the student protests shape the country’s evolution. These elements are to impact the region’s future.
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