Selim Ibraimi- Serbia is in a critical situation. The new government and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić are facing challenges, with the potential for continued internal unrest and a loss of power. The government and President Vučić are attempting to maintain power by all means. Over the past 13 years, critics say, the opposition has been suppressed by the government and Vučić.
But last year, everything changed with the incident in Vojvodina, when a bus station collapsed, killing dozens of people. Protests by students and citizens have forced Vučić and the serbian government to make important decisions. According to reports from Belgrade, the internal pressure has significantly reduced the government’s chances of keeping serbian citizens under control. Thus, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), according to news from Serbia, is likely to lose the upcoming parliamentary elections. According to recent polls, the serbian opposition enjoys high support in Serbia, while the parties that make up the government have suffered a decline. Opposition forces and other parties, with the will of serbian citizens, are determined to overthrow Vučić. As recent polls show, serbs are disappointed with the government’s corrupt policies and the future of the country.
According to the polling agency “Sprint Insight”, the data show that serbs are demanding change. 54.8 percent of respondents who support the “Student List”, a coalition that includes workers, farmers, students, etc., are in the lead compared to 42.1 percent who support President Vučić’s coalition, which consists of the SNS, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), and a far-right party (SRS). Regarding Serbia’s foreign policy, serbian citizens remained divided again. 16.7 percent of respondents prefer to continue the alliance with Russia and China. 28.5 percent of them support a neutral stance with the countries of the Middle East. 18.5 percent of them favor closer ties with the West, and 25.3 percent, according to the poll, remain undecided. This is the current atmosphere in Serbia, which is an indication that Serbia will continue to be under protest this year.
Previously, Vučić and his supporters, in order to weaken the power of the protesters’ demands, in January of this year, reorganized the government cabinet by placing reliable figures at the head of the government, such as Miloš Vučević. According to the opposition, he has not brought any changes to Serbia since January 2025, except for fulfilling President Vučević’s agenda. However, despite the pressure from the government, the people are determined that changes must happen. On the other hand, President Vučević, with the support of the Serbian Church, security services, and the army, still wants to stay in power. During Vučić’s rule, he has, as foreign organizations have reported for years, silenced the opposition and undermined reforms that are a key step towards Serbia’s EU membership. These accusations have been rejected by the government, and he has called them untrue. The government and Vučić have ignored Western criticism, which has led to growing concern in the West about Serbia’s democratic prospects.
The latest reaction from Brussels regarding joint military exercises with China has even confirmed that Vučić will make efforts to stay in power, even with external help. From the concerns in Serbia, we are usually accustomed to thinking that Russia will traditionally come to the rescue. But, as we have emphasized in previous articles about Serbia, the action of Serbia’s dual policy (East-West) with the agreement on rare earth minerals with the EU, the military agreement on the purchase of military aircraft from France and with the US on the line of arms delivery to Ukraine, may change Russia’s position in supporting the forces to weaken Vučić. This is plausible to some extent, but likely, things will not change in Serbia. It is noted that the EU and the US will continue to support Vučić despite rumors of his removal from power.
Numerous criticisms of Serbia’s deviation from EU policies are present in Brussels, while in Belgrade, for well-known reasons, the diplomatic language is soft. Thus, during the recent visit of EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos to the Balkans, although she tried to prioritize EU policies, she had no choice but to openly support Serbian protesters, while indirectly criticizing the Serbian government for un-European policies.
In the long run, since serbian society has undergone rapid changes since the 1991 wars, it is difficult to say that even if Vučić leaves, serbian society and politics will change their attitude towards the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kosovo. Perhaps a different perspective can be seen in domestic reforms and EU integration, but not so much with its neighbors.
As far as is known, Serbia’s foreign policy may undergo some nuanced changes, but not radical changes to completely detach itself from Moscow.
Towards the EU and China, Serbia will have two different courses. Maintaining the same level of relations with the EU and further strengthening them with China. Serbia is taking these actions because it sees the EU and China as economic and very productive partners in the long term. With the US, it remains to be seen how the administration of President Donald Trump will act. The imposition of tariffs will not damage the historic serbian-american relations. The 2020 agreement in Washington between Kosovo and Serbia under President Trump’s supervision could be the test of where these relations will go. In these relations, if the forces change, ‘democracy’ in Serbia will be put to the test. Meanwhile, the EU, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has been exerting pressure and imposing economic sanctions on Russia.
Serbia and Vučić have not done this, and have even opened the line with Russia to avoid such economic and financial measures from the US and the EU. In this situation, Vučić is in charge, while the opposition and students will need more time and energy to overthrow the government. Despite his games, Vučić’s position is shaking.
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