Moscow tests NATO

Selim Ibraimi- Harsh comments and stances towards Russia from the EU and the US regarding the latest drone attack against Poland. Less than a week after numerous US promises to Poland during the visit of polish president Karol Nawrock to Washington, Russia attacked Poland with drones.
Polish airspace in the south-east of the country was covered with hundreds of russian military drones. Before the russian attack, US president Donald Trump said during a meeting with the polish president on September 3 that the US could increase the presence of troops in Poland. Later, after the attack, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in a statement that the North Atlantic Council discussed Poland’s request for consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty. According to him, the allies expressed solidarity with Poland and denounced Russia’s reckless behavior. “A full assessment of the incident is underway. What is clear is that the violation of airspace is not an isolated incident.”

Polish and NATO military aircraft intercepted most, but not all, of the Russian drones. Senior NATO military officials said they would continue to actively manage deterrence and protection along the entire eastern flank. According to them, the allies are determined to defend every inch of territory, closely monitoring the situation along the eastern flank. While EU officials have issued statements, Russia has ignored Western reactions, and has refused to accept any responsibility. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office announced that “it was clear that Russia was continuing to increase its aggression, systematically increasing its attacks through a campaign of increasingly belligerent actions”.

Meanwhile, the german government said in a press release that it would expand air control over Poland. NATO’s supreme commander in Europe, US General Alexus Grynkewich, said the alliance was not sure how many drones entered polish territory, or whether they were launched intentionally. “But we will learn lessons.” “We will learn things that we need to improve our posture, to deal with these limited incursions,” Grynkewich said. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that the russian drone incident was “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.” He also said that there was “no reason to believe that we are on the brink of war.”

The polish prime minister added that 19 russian drones flew over Poland, of which up to four were shot down. “The remains of 16 of them have so far been found scattered across polish villages, crashing into houses and damaging cars,” Tusk said. Given the complex security situation on NATO’s eastern flank, as Secretary-General Mark Rutte pointed out, Poland responded by invoking Article 4 of the Washington Treaty. According to the Treaty, Article 4 can be invoked by any NATO member state that feels threatened. According to the criteria, it can request this during a meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC). Article 4 of the Washington Treaty paves the way for senior NATO officials to consult on the next steps the alliance should take. While invoking Article 4 is a big deal, it still doesn’t have the same importance as Article 5. So while we’ve explained Article 4, let’s take a look at Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, and why it’s more important than Article 4. Article 5 states that “if one member is attacked, all other members shall consider it an attack on them.” In fact, Article 5 requires a collective response from NATO members.

But one fact should not be overlooked. Article 5 does not mean that NATO or its members should immediately declare war; each NATO member state must analyze the situation and take action in accordance with the constitution. In the case of Poland, the US has not taken many additional steps regarding Russia and the recent drone attacks on Polish airspace. In the US, the president will have to take into account the views of Congress.

However, despite the harsh reactions and statements from the West, at this time on the eastern side of the EU, the US is trying to send more planes and technology to monitor russian activities, but not to start another war with Russia. The US has let NATO members do more regarding defense, and with the recent drone attacks on Poland. On the other hand, Poland is becoming more militarily secure, which the government in Warsaw has promised with new modernization plans. Other critics say that if NATO does not show more unity and preparedness towards Russia, then Russia will take this as a sign of NATO’s weakness and more. Moreover, Poland has closed its borders with Belarus due to the Russian military exercises ‘Zapad 2025’. In other words, Russia has put Iskander missiles into active service in Kaliningrad. Meanwhile, NATO has also launched the “Eastern Guard” military initiative. In the past 400 years, Poland and Russia have had tense relations and have been at war. The last invasion of Poland in 1939, and the ethnic cleansing by russian forces, have left bad memories for poles to distrust the russians. Poland is a major logistical, air and road hub for Ukraine, and has the potential to be a major power in the coming decade. From the former Warsaw Pact states to the Balkans, in addition to military activities and clandestine operations, Russia has been increasing its propaganda, and its influence in the political, media, religious and cultural space for more than a decade. From now on, the best option for NATO members and non-members is to prepare and stand united in the face of uncertainty. The latest Russian attack can be seen as a moment when Moscow is testing NATO members.

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