Selim Ibraimi- Falling into the self-trap of foreign policy has been an old topic, or we can say it has been an early concern, since ancient times. With technological development, especially with the massive spread of artificial intelligence and the increase in disinformation, the appearance of self-trap in this field has become commonplace. And it is there that inattentive political decision-makers suffer the most and will continue to make mistakes. There are a number of factors that influence the repetition of mistakes or falling into the trap of policies that states themselves build, and try to put into action.
Psychological pressure, prejudices, and wrong decisions based on inaccurate predictions can be among the factors of falling into the trap by officials during the implementation of foreign policy and diplomacy, whether with friendly or hostile states. Since the process and decision-making in foreign policy is complicated and require a sharp and sound mind, avoidance can be easy if the knowledge of circumstances and events is not distorted by political leaders. We have dealt with a similar topic before, while this time the article mainly deals with the easy fall into political self-traps, prepared from within or from without, and in particular, it is related to the trap that governments make for themselves. Governments can make wrong calculations and judgments by underestimating the capabilities of other states based on half-baked information.
Disinformation and misinterpretations usually arise when leaders of states influenced by ethnic, religious, cultural, and ideological misconceptions fall into various traps that have fatal consequences. Moreover, we can recall the bloody wars in the Balkans during the last century.
At the global level, there was the Cold War, which was accompanied by an arms race between the US and the USSR, linked to the perception that a nuclear attack could occur from the opponent. Other examples can be given related to the perception and dilemma of security in international relations.
As for the events of the 20th-21st century, we can cite as an example the policies of NATO, where if one country is attacked, then the entire alliance must enter the war due to Articles 4 and 5 of the NATO Treaty. Such a policy has similarities with the developments of the last century, even before the start of the First World War, where german support for Austria-Hungary escalated the war in Europe and the Balkans. The key to the policy of the then german state was precisely this unconditional policy towards Austria-Hungary, which was experiencing the last days of collapse.
While in today’s global dynamics, the 25th EU-China Summit can be highlighted as a case study, where EU and Chinese representatives agreed to strengthen cooperation, but there is no guarantee that relations between the two sides will remain the same if the US continues with its high tariff policies towards China, and their reflection in EU-US relations, despite the recent agreement reached in Scotland, will not shake these relations in the future. Here, we are dealing with a joint movement that must be evaluated in the future due to the increase in tensions between the three aforementioned geopolitical actors. The last EU-China Summit has a logic, as it is based on avoiding unexpected pitfalls that may arise from unknown factors.
Therefore, summits and meetings have their positive sides where issues are discussed, and conclusions can be reached that have a common goal. But in such a complex and competitive world, it is unlikely that traps will not be repeated in foreign policy.
As another example at the regional level, we can take the Balkan countries, and as usual, here Kosovo and North Macedonia appear, which, due to their policies, encounter traps in foreign policy, with errors that affect the ability of governments to function normally with other countries and within the country. For example, the government in Skopje, just like in the time of former prime minister Nikolla Gruevski, is encountering traps, aware of the long-term consequences. Here we are not talking about the “Thucydides Trap” (History of the Peloponnesian War) in classical terms, but about stimulating aggressive policies towards other countries and falling into the abyss, which is considered a policy of self-trap with prior knowledge of the consequences. The only way to prevent disagreements and pitfalls is to apply different policies, working with governments to minimize misunderstandings and frustrations.
Another example is Kosovo, which, due to internal issues and political disagreements, has not constituted a new parliament, and such a situation has blocked the country’s ability to deal effectively with others. Thus, any government is destined to fall into its trap if it pursues unfamiliar policies.
Therefore, it is understandable that states, due to internal and external forces, tend to take impulsive actions in foreign policy. Such traps in the decision-making process can be avoided with flexibility and dialogue.
But in the Balkan and other conditions, it is very difficult to claim such a thing. Even worse may be the case in the case of North Macedonia, where the European Parliament in a report highlighted as a high risk, the external influence on North Macedonia from other geopolitical actors and the “serbian world”, which the government of prime minister Hristijan Mickoski and the Albanian partner, composed of the “Vlen” parties are well aware. Continuing in the same direction would represent a classic case of a trap that states and officials have already recognized. And in the end, the repetition of the same policies that result in falling into the trap may push officials to face bad options in foreign and domestic affairs. Ultimately, it is essential to recognize that elected officials are not infallible; however, in politics, they must adhere to specific steps that can foster strength and cooperation, ultimately preventing the worst outcomes for everyone.
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