By Selim Ibraimi- Center for Security Studies and Development- Macedonia (CSSD)
The Balkans remain the area of instability. Even though the security and stabilization has been improved since the 1990, the region fails back on current trends.
Migration of Syrian refugees dramatically has change the Western Balkans and had direct impact on the feature of the region.
Russia’s offensive is extremely worrying for the Allied forces and Germany and France have launched a different approach to Russia. What does this mean for the Balkans and will reflect the new EU policy in the Balkans? What else is in Putin’s mind?
The way the Balkan States have decided to deal with threats of the decade is actually out dated in terms what US and EU want to achieve in this part of Peninsula. Crimea, the Oil-Liquefied Natural Gas Production (LNG) and Russian interests in Balkans, in some degree made the US to stay close to it’s regional allies.
As the international system change a lot in recent years and after US was involved in other wars, basically the Balkans change too.
The vacuum in Peninsula was filed by Russia and, now US and other forces must deal with crisis in Macedonia and Bosnia. Serbia and Montenegro are other two future hot spots for EU and US. İn this context, the arms race between Zagreb and Belgrade can interpreted as indirect involvement of Russia and US.
The dependency on Russian gas export by European countries, includes here the Balkans, in near future can be reduced only if US starts to support and export to European market gas and oil.
Meanwhile the US Congress has raise the concerns how to find an alternative way of exporting gas to these states, of Western Balkans.