Reconsidering winter geopolitics

By Blerim Abedini- The Center for Security Studies and Development- Macedonia(CSSD)

Under EU directives, intended to found a modus considering geopolitical barriers. So finding a new alternative for a new line of gas transportation is a challenge for the EU. Given the cancellation of some regional gas lines, a doubt that the new lines could fail.The world is currently in a ‘Cold Peace’ whose leadership has periodic confrontations. Currently we witness the fragile relations between the US and Russia, Turkey and Russia, the EU and Russia, the EU and Turkey, China and the US.

The gas supply in European countries among others is a source of political crisis.In Macedonia we see a similar case.Northern Asia along the north-east and north-west has considerable resources capacity of gas. During the winter, the northern hemisphere of Europe is facing low temperatures run the risk that whole families to cope with the frost.
So complex situation that requires a political solution, knowing that Russia has taken economic sanctions due to non-observance of international conventions as its involvement in the Ukraine crisis and occupation of Crimea. On the other hand Russia is a factor of political exchange in the Middle East, which continues to be a tense region. The Russian offer protective policies Syrian- President Assad, has slowed down the implementation of some operations of the North-Atlantic alliance to limit the power and the imposition of resignation to the Syrian President.

As you know Russia seeks new routes for gas pipeline installation. Line pipeline that will pass through Turkey, as we know failed because of the incident on Turkey-Syria border line which caused scrapping two Russian aircraft and a pilot died. President Erdogan, not apologized which led to the cooling of relations between the two countries. After that Russia expelled all Turkish businessmen and trade sanctions laid import. A parallel step with this, Turkey is not approved, leaving space that relations with Russia will improve. To this day the Russian-Turkish relations remain in the same position by getting worse. Russia has made a series of accusations against Turkey, bringing satellite imagery as an argument. It accuses Turkey of using economic interest in the Syrian crisis by importing the fuel.
Syria as Turkey’s southern neighbor has no good relations with Turkey, which it existed in the past. Also exerted pressure on the Turkish ethnic groups in Syria has been evident in the past.

On the other hand we have a political discourse in Turkey-Iran and Syria. Turkey tends to improve the degrading Iran’s policies that are targeted by international factor. Also from the past we know that Iran has had good ties with Syria providing support to it. Also we have known the composition of the Syrian parliament in the past.
Under EU directives intended to found a modus considering geopolitical barriers. So finding a new alternative for a new line of gas transportation is a challenge for the EU. Given the cancellation of some regional gas lines, a doubt that the new lines could fail. Points of conflict may appear in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. So Russia can pressure it about to fail because of its economic interest is there.

So Russia may cancel this, recalling that it was the largest supplier of gas to Europe. On the other hand, Turkey conditioned the EU on migration, demanding the release of visas for Turkish citizens. It should not avoid a similar decision by the Turkish President that he again may condition for entering EU regional gas pipelines. So the EU planning to start gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea via the states of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Greece and Italy being distributed in the EU is a story that may open new conflicts in the Middle East. So strained political relations will weaken the national economies of the member countries of the EU such as Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Hungary, which cannot pay the high price of energy in winter.

The world is currently in a ‘Cold Peace’ whose leadership has periodic confrontations. Currently we witness the fragile relations between the US and Russia, Turkey and Russia, the EU and Russia, the EU and Turkey, China and the US, as leaderships that could change the political situation.
The new leadership is emerging in the US, in which also will change the policy of Washington in Europe with new military buildup and new routes of energy pipeline.

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Winter geopolitics with gas pipeline

Photo Credit:GI

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