Climate change, growing threat to national security

 

By Blerim Abedini – Center for Security Studies and Development-Macedonia (CSSD)

Something is clear and understandable. Today we can see migration of people done by different reasons either as a result of human or naturally induced pressures.We need to be prepared to meet the challenges of human migration and dislocation produced by civil wars or climate change. Operationally, humanitarian agencies need to offer people on the move the same elements for survival and safety: food, shelter, medicines, trauma relief, etc. 

We have in consideration climate variation anthropogenic factors becoming from human activities which affect the climate. The scientific consensus for climate change which differs from people’s though that, “climate is changing and these changes are in large part caused by human activities,” and it “is largely irreversible”.
This is crucial for us because, decision makers could bring global decisions and agreements by financing activities related to Climate issues. For that, potential impacts that will affect people in coming decades will face barriers from leadership who should work and place climate change in the context of other large challenges facing the nations and the world. Also, we have to consider implications as global threats as environmental, social, economic, political and distributions of goods. In near future we have to face global movement against pollution.

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Currently are some strong initiatives by theologians by calling Climate Changes as encyclical- “integral ecology,” that understands, care for the environment. Theologians are against environmental destruction and for fast global action. Analogical steps by governments, who are currently developing domestic Climate-Change plans for being prepared to the United Nations summit meeting on this issue in Paris by December. The summit goal is to achieve an accord in which every nation would commit with new policies for limiting greenhouse-gas emissions. Some compromises need by major emitters like Brazil. Also there would be other areas of discussions as Arctic issue and prevention, the water level in seas and oceans, water supply in the coming years, pollution by various emission emitters of gases as cars and industry, pollution index across urban cities, rural effects as agriculture and downturns on it as it is happening in Africa regions, raised temperatures by decades and solar activity and cooling, adaptation of plants and animals, current situation in Antarctic, natural disasters as cyclones, storms, flows, volcanic dust,… Most concern is the increase in CO2 levels, followed by aerosols and cement manufacture.Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture and deforestation, are also of concern in conjunction with other factors in affecting climate, micro-climate, and measures of climate variables.
Contributions by different people as Al Gore contributions are getting huge impact on the mind of people to protect life. The prophet of doom as people are calling Al Gore has seen support for his views rising within the business community: Investment in renewable energy sources like wind and solar is skyrocketing as their costs plummet which is very beneficial approach to this matter.
Investigations as is it from Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and chairman of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who said, “We are now in a situation where we have to think about the consequences of our insight for society.” Also Timothy Wirth, vice chairman of the United Nations Foundation has said, “It gives a lot of cover to political and economic leaders in those countries, as they make decisions on climate change policy”.

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Statistics by experts who earlier had predicted some datas as, “in 2000 that wind generated power worldwide would reach 30 gigawatts; by 2010, it was 200 gigawatts, and by last year it reached nearly 370, or more than 12 times higher. Installations of solar power would add one new gigawatt per year by 2010, predictions in 2002 stated. It turned out to be 17 times that by 2010 and 48 times.
Also studies by working groups as epidemiological research on the health includes the direct impacts of heat, floods, and droughts, as well as the indirect consequences on malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, Hantavirus-related disease, cholera, meningococcal infections, and malnutrition. Also the researchers develop strategies about how to counteract these impacts and they provide guidance for those making social, economic, and health care policies.
The Kyoto Protocol in limiting greenhouse gases is first necessary step for preventing the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere. These regulations could contribute to the application of energy-efficient technology in the production of consumer products and in industry. The replacement of fossil fuel with renewable energy sources will play a key role in the stabilization of the greenhouse effect and its effects on public health.
New research paper of the United States National Academy of Sciences claims that temperature rises in Africa have coincided with significant increases in the likelihood of war.
But not everyone agrees that there is a direct link between climate change and increased conflict, in an ongoing academic debate that goes all the way to the top of the United Nations.
In 2007, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon described the conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region as the world’s first climate change conflict. The assumption was that water scarcity contributed to this conflict. Also, researchers Marshall B. Burke and his colleagues from several American universities have published what they say is “the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa”.
In numerical terms for African region would be, 1% increase in temperature leads to a 4.5% increase in civil war for same year and a 0.9% increase in the following year.
By the year 2030, based on averaged data from the 18 climate models used, this will translate to approximately a 54% increase in armed conflict incidence in the region.
The researchers argue that conflict will derive from economic reasons and agriculture, and found, “the economic welfare is the single factor most consistently associated with conflict incidence”.
Dr. Vesselin Popovski, Senior Academic Programe Officer and head of the United Nations University Institute of Sustainability and Peace’s Peace and Security Section, argues that there is an indirect link between climate change and conflict. Also he added that, “There is no doubt that impoverishment and human insecurity may arise as a result of climate change, if preventive measures are not undertaken. However, there is missing evidence that global warming directly increases conflict.”
Popovski cites a prominent study by scholars from the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo that claims that “the causal chains suggested in the literature have so far rarely been substantiated with reliable evidence”.
Something is clear and understandable. Today we can see migration of people done by different reasons either as a result of human or naturally induced pressures. It’s clear that people are looking for better life conditions and can enjoy better livelihoods.

migration
We need to be prepared to meet the challenges of human migration and dislocation produced by civil wars or climate change. Operationally, humanitarian agencies need to offer people on the move the same elements for survival and safety: food, shelter, medicines, trauma relief, etc.

Foto Credit:GI

Note: Analyses and research articles are products of the Center for Security Studies and Development-Macedonia. All rights reserved

 

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